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With the bulk of Essex County’s greenhouse crops shipped across the American border, a spokesman for the region’s economically important agricultural sector warns there could be major job losses if President-elect Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs take effect.

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Richard Lee, executive director of Ontario Greenhouse Vegetable Growers (OGVG), told the Star as many as 23,000 local jobs are at stake.

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“We’re very concerned. We can’t take these threats lightly based on our trade dependency with the U.S.,” Richard Lee, executive director of Ontario Greenhouse Vegetable Growers (OGVG), told the Star.

The incoming president has threatened a 25-per cent tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. from Canada and Mexico, possibly as soon as he’s sworn in on Monday.

Those threats should not be underestimated, said Lee, whose organization represents 170 vegetable growers across the province.

But Essex County, as home to 75 per cent of the province’s greenhouse farming acreage — and host to the largest cluster of greenhouses in North America — could absorb the brunt of the impact of any U.S. tariffs.

“We’ve been exploring options on the provincial and federal levels to identify the potential risks and impacts to our sector,” said Lee.

Though it remains unclear which sectors might be targeted by the tariffs — or if they will even be imposed at all — Lee said he plans to “prepare for the worst and expect the best.”

Last year, OGVG growers exported $1.6 billion worth of fresh farm produce to American markets, according to Lee. Essex County greenhouses, mainly growing tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers, accounted for about $1.36 billion — or 85 per cent — of that value.

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The Ontario Greenhouse Vegetable Growers supports roughly 35,000 agricultural jobs. That includes positions in greenhouse operations, packaging, trucking, brokering, and marketing.

Lee warns Trump’s proposed tariffs could put as many as 29,000 of those jobs at risk, especially if the levied taxes remain in place for an extended period without government subsidies to offset the impact.

Of those jobs, he estimates 23,000 would be on the line in Essex County, making the region particularly vulnerable.

“I grew up in the Windsor-Essex County area,” said Lee. “It’s hard to not know someone who is somehow tied or connected to what’s grown here to support food security across North America. It will impact a lot of people.”

Among those threatened local farm jobs are 8,000 to 10,000 positions filled by seasonal and temporary foreign workers employed at Essex County farms and greenhouses during peak growing season.

“If there’s no production and there’s no farming, those workers will be sent home,” said Lee.

“Temporary foreign workers coming in from source countries usually have a fixed contract with the employer here in Canada,” he explained.

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“It’s not like we can shift them to another farm or create jobs for them because of the restrictions they’ve entered the country under.”

At a press conference earlier this week, Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned U.S. tariffs could cost up to 450,000 to 500,000 jobs in his province, depending on the sectors targeted.

Beyond that, tariffs could strain the longstanding bilateral trade partnership between the bordering countries, governed by the Canada-United States-Mexico Trade Agreement (CUSMA), which was brokered during Trump’s first term.

In 2023, Canada exported $40.5 billion worth of agri-food products to its American neighbour and largest trading partner. That same year, Canada imported $32 billion worth of agri-food products from the U.S.

It’s not the retailer or the shipper but consumers who will be most impacted by tariffs, said Lee, with price markups on American grocery store shelves.

“So, they’re unfairly taxing the consumer at the worst possible time, when affordability is one of the major crises that we’re facing as Canadians and Americans,” said Lee.

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With higher costs for most consumers, Lee said demand would plummet and fewer Ontario greenhouse vegetables would get shipped across the border.

But Lee said it’s difficult to predict exactly what will happen once Trump steps into his second term Jan. 20. The current political climate, he added, is similar to 2016 when Trump brazenly threatened tariffs on Canadian goods before his first stint as president.

“His threats made back in his first term were illogical, and ultimately did cause ripple effects,” said Lee.

“The tariffs were aimed mainly at steel and aluminum, but it was short-lived. That’s why it’s important that the federal government has this level of preparedness, and I understand they’ve identified a list of retaliatory tariffs they can impose on products coming into Canada.

“Hopefully, Trump is going to take a similar approach and exempt food from the list of goods he’s targeting.”

What is different this time around, said Lee, is the growing political uncertainty within Canada.

Amid waning popularity in the polls, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced last week he was stepping down as party leader and prorogued Parliament until March. His announcement followed shortly after the resignation of his long-time deputy prime minister and minister of finance, Chrystia Freeland.

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During a Windsor visit on Thursday, the outgoing prime minister once again condemned Trump’s tariff threats and warned of trade retaliation by Canada in response.

“There will be other consequences felt throughout the value chain domestically that will have detrimental impacts people probably won’t recover from,” said Lee.

“I hope they (senior governments) have a strategic plan well laid out and ready to execute.”

mmazak@postmedia.com

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