You’ll often hear that the parity of the NFL is what makes it an incredible professional sports league. I tend to agree with this sentiment. Nearly any team is able to build a competitive roster in any given season. This is exemplified by the fact that almost every season, a team wins their division after finishing in last the prior year.
This parity is primarily driven by the high rate of roster turnover in the NFL. According to Over The Cap, NFL teams return less than 60 percent of their roster from one year to the next, on average. With it being incredibly difficult to keep the same players on the payroll, establishing consistent success is something that is achieved by few teams.
The ever-changing rosters of the NFL leave us as fans asking questions about how players and teams will perform each season. These questions are inherently driven by the uncertainty surrounding newly formed rosters.
Working through this uncertainty to develop an understanding of how teams will operate is one of fantasy football’s key pieces of business each season. On top of understanding how teams will function, we must determine if they will be successful with an evolving pool of players.
Thankfully, over the course of the offseason, training camp practices, preseason games, and interviews with coaches and players help us to answer these questions. As training camp rapidly approaches, let’s discuss some of the biggest questions facing fantasy managers. Part one of this series will feature the AFC, with an NFC discussion coming soon.
How will Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman use their running backs?
The changes coming to the Chargers offense have permeated beyond the fantasy community and are discussed amongst general NFL fans with no interest in fantasy football.
Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have been clear that their offense will heavily feature the rushing attack. Through their careers as NFL coaches, both Harbaugh and Roman have built successful offenses by leaning on their running backs.
Roman is clearly a mastermind who will provide the opportunity for fantasy success for one of these RBs.
The question becomes, which running back will it be? The roster currently features Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and everyone’s favorite rookie sleeper, Kimani Vidal.
Edwards is presumed to be the RB1 and will likely be getting reps with the first team throughout the offseason. But Edwards is far from a locked-in RB1. He has delivered respectable and efficient seasons in Baltimore, but his talent and contract indicate that it would not be impossible for another RB to steal touches or fully surpass him on the depth chart.
At the moment, I am inclined to take stabs on just Gus Edwards. I will certainly be drafting my fair share of Vidal or Dobbins, but I will be holding off for the most part until there is more clarity on the situation. There is an outcome for Dobbins or Vidal where they play no role in this offense. I am willing to wait for some training camp reports and pay the inflated price for whoever appears to be the RB2.
Regardless of who you prefer to draft in this backfield at the moment, eyes should be glued on Chargers training camp news to see who may emerge as the top option(s) in this backfield.
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Who will be Josh Allen’s top target in Buffalo?
The Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs connection has been a staple in Buffalo for the last four seasons. With Diggs now in Houston, the pecking order among Buffalo’s pass catchers is up in the air. Aside from Diggs, Gabe Davis has moved on to Jacksonville. With two of the Bills mainstays at receiver no longer on the roster, targets are up for grabs in Buffalo.
The prime candidates to soak up these targets are TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Keon Coleman, WR Curtis Samuel, and WR Khalil Shakir.
Looking at Kincaid, he saw a relatively high level of success in his rookie season. Moving into his sophomore year, he is the primary candidate to lead this team in targets. While the Buffalo offense has never heavily featured a TE with Josh Allen under center, Kincaid is Allen’s “safest” receiving option and will be heavily utilized this season.
Keon Coleman has arguably the widest range of outcomes of any rookie WR this season. The Bills Round 2 selection displayed some promising characteristics at Florida State and the lack of depth at WR in Buffalo could lead to Coleman assuming WR1 duties as a rookie. However, red flags in his collegiate analytic profile and concerning comments from Bills’ GM Brandon Bean create uncertainty surrounding Coleman’s potential success.
Shakir and Samuel are both in line to play a role in this offense. However, neither of them has a legitimate chance to be the alpha of this offense. Between the two of them, Samuel is the more intriguing pick to me. His relationship with Bills’ OC Joe Brady also plays in his favor.
Correctly identifying the hierarchy order among Buffalo pass catchers will be very impactful for fantasy football. Finding Josh Allen’s go-to receiver will likely pay off in a big way. The player with the highest ceiling is undoubtedly Keon Coleman, but keeping an eye on his progression throughout training camp will be crucial.
How will touches be split within the Cincinnati backfield?
At its core, fantasy football can be boiled down to be a very simple game. Selecting pieces of quality offense is often a recipe for success in fantasy football. In the Joe Burrow era, fantasy success has been commonplace. This holds true for the running back position, where Joe Mixon has finished as the RB10 or better in three consecutive seasons.
Mixon’s success can largely be attributed to his utter domination of touches. While neither Zack Moss nor Chase Brown profile to be the bell-cow that Mixon was, there is value to be extracted from this backfield.
When discussing ambiguous backfield targets, I laid out the case for preferring Zack Moss in this backfield. Although Moss is my current preference, Brown has the tantalizing athletic gifts to provide some dominating performances in fantasy football.
With only two clear options (for now) in the Cincinnati backfield, preseason practices and reports should be very helpful in determining how the touches in this backfield will be chopped up.
Will Trevor Lawrence establish himself and the Jacksonville offense among the NFL’s elite?
After signing a massive contract with an average annual value (AAV) of 55 million dollars, Trevor Lawrence is being paid as one of the league’s elite players.
This payday comes on the back of a career where expectations have by no means been exceeded. Following a moderate breakout in 2022, most people around the NFL expected Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense to solidify themselves among the NFL’s elite in 2023. Although the season wasn’t exactly a failure, they fell short of this elite expectation.
2024 is likely Lawrence’s last year to prove his capability of entering the elite tier of fantasy QBs. This will be year four of his career and if it is another season of middling production, it’s likely that Lawrence will be a perennial low-end QB1 or high-end QB2.
This season, Lawrence’s QB14 price indicates that the fantasy community already views Lawrence in this light. I am willing to buy Lawrence at this price and believe the drafters are “out” on the elite potential of this offense a year too early. The weapons arsenal is deep and has been revamped with a dynamic receiver in Brian Thomas Jr. I am also willing to buy into Lawrence’s “what if” and injury narratives from last season.
On paper, Jacksonville has the pieces to deliver elite options for fantasy football. With fair prices on their weapons across the board, I am very interested in the Jaguars’ offense this season.
Will Sean Payton recreate the Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara 1-2 punch in Denver?
Looking at another ambiguous backfield, there is a fair amount of uncertainty in Denver. Presumed RB1 Javonte Williams struggled and there are nonsensical discussions of him being on the roster bubble. Samaje Perine is a quality veteran presence but is a cut candidate, Jaleel McLaughlin provides an intriguing skillset as a pass catcher, and Audric Estime was drafted in Round 5 of this year’s draft.
This backfield becomes interesting due to Sean Payton’s usage of running backs, specifically pass-catching RBs. Last season, the Broncos were 1st in the NFL in terms of running back target share. This is a metric that Payton’s offenses regularly rank highly in as RBs are a focal point of his passing attack.
Payton has even shown the ability to develop an offense that supports multiple high-end fantasy running backs. In 2017 with the Saints, both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara were top-ten RBs in PPR.
It will require a miracle for the Broncos’ offense to be strong enough to support this level of production. But it is promising to see that RBs in a Payton offense can deliver fantasy value even if touches are heavily split.
With Williams being the primary candidate to be the top option, the competition for the complementary role is one to monitor. Jaleel McLaughlin’s small stature and (lack of) draft capital are not exactly promising, but he displayed some serious pass-catching chops last season. If he can monopolize the receiving work for RBs in this offense, he will be an absolute steal in fantasy drafts.
As always, keep an eye on training camp reports that will give us a better idea on who is in line for the secondary role in Denver.
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