Jul 2, 2024; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Brazil forward Vinicius Junior (7) during the second half against Colombia at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

• A massive quarterfinal clash at the 2024 Copa America between Uruguay and Brazil takes place on Saturday night in Paradise, NV
• Uruguay is 3-0 with a +8 goal differential while Brazil had to settle for two draws in the group stage
• Below, see the Uruguay vs Brazil odds, picks, and predictions for July 6

Two titans of South American soccer meet in the quarterfinals of the 2024 Copa America on Saturday, July 6, as Uruguay (3-0-0) lock horns with Brazil (1-2-0) at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.

While the Uruguayans performed better in the group stage, the Seleção are – per usual – favored in on Saturday’s Uruguay vs Brazil odds.

Uruguay vs Brazil Odds

Brazil is priced at +160 to win in regular time with a Uruguay victory at +200. A full-time draw is +190. The Uruguay vs Brazil odds also favor under 2.5 goals by a fairly significant margin with the over at +150 and the under at -184 at FanDuel.

In the two-way odds to advance, Brazil is -115 to move onto the semifinals, while Uruguay is at +106. If the match ends in a draw after 90 minutes, there is no extra time and the winner is decided on penalties. The victory will face the winner of Colombia vs Panama on Wednesday, July 10, at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Odds as of July 6 at FanDuel. Lock in a FanDuel sign-up bonus before betting on the 2024 Copa America. 

Brazil and Uruguay head into their quarterfinal clash as the second and third-favorites in the latest 2024 Copa America odds; Brazil is +350 to win the tournament, while Uruguay is +550. Since the tournament moved to a group stage/knockout stage format in 1975, Brazil and Uruguay have been the most-successful teams, each winning four Copa titles.

Uruguay Dominates Group C

With the possible exception of Argentina, no team was more impressive in the group stage than Uruguay. La Celeste went 3-0-0 against Panama (3-1), Bolivia (5-0), and the USMNT (1-0), and the only goal they conceded came in the final minute of stoppage time against Panama when they were already up 1-0.

Uruguay’s defense has been impeccable, conceding six shots on target and 1.24 xGA across 270 minutes (plus stoppage time).

Uruguay’s dominance at the Copa  wasn’t unexpected. They have been nearly perfect a third of the way through CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, going 4-1-1 with a federation-best +8 goal differential in six games. In addition to a 2-1 loss at Ecuador and a 2-2 draw at Colombia back in December, they have massive wins at Argentina (2-0) and at home against Brazil (2-0), plus dominant victories against Chile (3-1 home) and Bolivia (3-0 home).

While Liverpool striker Darwin Núñez continues to be the focal point of the Uruguay attack (he had a seven-game goalscoring streak end against the USMNT), Uruguay has been getting contributions from all over during the Copa: Núñezhas two goals while Maximiliano Araujo (two), Matias Vina, Facundo Pellistri, Federico Valverde, Rodrigo Bentancur, and Mathias Olivera have also found the net.

Brazil’s Attack Less Potent Than Years Past

With Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo up front, Brazil’s forward combo is as potent as any in the world, but Vinicius is suspended for the Uruguay match, and Brazil’s midfield play leaves a little to be desired. Brazil generated just 1.30 xGF in their tournament-opening nil-nil draw with Costa Rica. While they never looked in danger of losing the game, they also didn’t have the inevitable quality of many Brazilian teams in recent history.

After dominating Paraguay 4-1, they also put in a lackluster effort against Colombia, a game they needed to win to avoid this quarterfinal clash with Uruguay. Raphinia gave Brazil a 1-0 lead on a majestic free kick early in the first half, but Colombia was the better team over the final 80 minutes. With the score already tied by halftime, Colombia generated 0.72 xGF in the final 45 minutes compared to just 0.19 for Brazil in a match where the Brazilians should have been the ones on the front foot. (A draw was good enough for Colombia to retain first place in Group D.

Uruguay vs Brazil Predictions & Picks

Brazil is not the same powerhouse they have been at certain points throughout history. They lack quality in the midfield and have holes in their defense. They are as dangerous as ever up front but the service into the strikers and wingers isn’t on par with what Brazilian fans have gotten used to over the years, and their most-dangerous player (Vini Junior) won’t even be in the lineup.

On the other hand, the midfield is where Uruguay excels. Real Madrid’s Federico Valverde might be the best player on the field tonight and, in my opinion, the wrong team is favored here.

URU vs BRA picks:

• Uruguay to advance (+106) at FanDuel: 2.0 units
• First half under 0.5 (+155) at Caesars
• Under 2.5 goals (-185) at DraftKings

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 32-15-1 (+18.72 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

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