NFL Week 1 DFS Breakdown: A game-by-game look at the weekend DFS slate

Posted by Admin September 7, 2024 Football

• Jerome Ford is a sneaky good play: Without Nick Chubb, Ford could have a productive day against the Dallas Cowboys‘ subpar run defense.

• Bijan Robinson should get a big workload: The Atlanta Falcons RB appears to be in line for a big start to the season.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

This breakdown offers a game-by-game analysis of the main slate on DraftKings, focusing on advanced stats, trends, expected pace and play-calling. Throughout the article, I’ll make it clear which players I’m targeting, but I also provide my “optimal lineup” every Sunday morning for DraftKings (DK). This lineup (LU) is designed to be deployed in all contest types (cash games, single-entry, and multi-entry GPPs) and consists of seven-of-nine players in a DK lineup to comply with DraftKings regulations of not giving out complete teams. If you read the article and look at the player pool below the optimal LU it is pretty easy to figure out how to fill out the last two spots, but this allows the user to take some responsibility and ownership. In addition to the optimal LU, I also share my personal player pool (usually 16-20 players) that I’m rolling out in three-max (contests that allow three lineups per user) and other multi-entry GPPs (contests that allow as many as 150 lineups per user).

Finally, I only recommend players/lineups that I’m personally investing in via DFS or player prop bets. I (most analysts in DFS) use a lot of acronyms and specific terminology, I will do my best to define them as I go but if you have questions you can always hit me up on Twitter (specify you are a PFF subscriber). If a player I recommend becomes an injury risk or is ruled out, I’ll update the article with a revised approach (same for weather concerns). I encourage you to stay alert to social media updates for any last-minute news before lineup lock (“lock”, when the first games start). Profitable DFS players take advantage of last-minute news and are ready to act quickly before lock and again before the late games kickoff.

Editor’s note: This breakdown may be used for cash games, single-entry, three-max, and high-dollar GPPs. For max-entering GPPs, use the recommended players to build your player pool (players are listed in order by my exposure).

Strategy notes

When preparing to play a “main slate” (the set of games with the largest prize pools and contest sizes on DraftKings each Sunday) with 12 games, we need to be OK with crossing out games, teams and players from our player pool.

One of the biggest fallacies in DFS is it’s “easy to win if you multi-enter,” meaning if you have 150 lineups you can cover everything and win because of it. As someone who plays 150 lineups, I can’t express enough how wrong that is. Max entering is the single fastest way to blow through your bankroll and the good multi-entry (ME) players say they do not try to get exposure to all players but rather take stands, normally based on that player’s ownership percentage. If a player is “good chalk” (a highly rostered player on a slate you feel will exceed expectations), that player will be projected to be 30% owned and could go as high as 50-70% to get leverage on the field. In the inverse, if they think a player is “bad chalk” (a highly rostered player that has a high probability of failing), they will take a stand and “fade” the player (either outright or by coming in way under the field in terms of ownership percentage).

Week 1 is tough to handicap, so many new players on new teams with new coaches, coordinators, and schemes. One angle I have been attacking is established systems and QB against new defensive coordinators implementing new systems. This is logic/results-based, so I have not back-tested it in a meaningful way. I have simply had some big Week 1 wins over the years in DFS.