Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!

Don’t be surprised if … Joe Burrow finishes the season as a top-10 quarterback.

Sure, Sunday against the New England Patriots was quite a drag, as Burrow produced only 8.06 fantasy points (ESPN PPR), but the Cincinnati Bengals quarterback is a notorious slow starter, going 1-4 in team openers. Don’t forget last year, when he completed 14-of-31 for just 82 yards — that’s not a typo — in a blowout loss to the Cleveland Browns.

The Patriots were far from embarrassing on defense last season. Burrow missed WR Tee Higgins (hamstring). Star WR Ja’Marr Chase was perhaps a bit compromised after all of his off-season contract talk. The Bengals were never in sync on offense.

Perhaps nothing changes in Week 2 at Kansas City, but Burrow isn’t the problem. He threw 12 TD passes over a five-game span last year before his season-ending wrist injury. Watch him rock in Weeks 3 and 4 against the terrible Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers. Don’t run away — invest.

Don’t be surprised if … Rhamondre Stevenson leads the league in rushing attempts.

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Yates expects high usage for Rhamondre Stevenson

Field Yates advises fantasy players to expect Rhamondre Stevenson to be heavily involved in upcoming games.

New England played a scrappy football game in Cincinnati, reflecting their new coach Jerod Mayo. We should see rookie QB Drake Maye this season, but perhaps not anytime soon. The team’s bye week is in December, so the franchise may wait on Maye, so he doesn’t have to face either the New York Jets or San Francisco 49ers.

Stevenson is the Patriots’ offense, and the offensive line looked far more competent than last season. Anyone worried about pass-catching former Commander Antonio Gibson stealing touches need not worry. Stevenson and Gibson combined for three catches — and Stevenson had them all. Ignore Patriots WRs with Jacoby Brissett at QB. No Patriot reached 600 receiving yards last season. It would be a surprise if someone did this season.

Don’t be surprised if … Sam Darnold delivers 2024 stats comparable to Baker Mayfield‘s 2023.

Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings are blessed with WR Justin Jefferson, RB Aaron Jones and other talented skill options in the huddle. You say, eh, who wants Mayfield, right? Well, Mayfield finished as QB10 in fantasy scoring last season, ahead of the more-heralded Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence and others — and not only because he simply “played in all the games.”

Mayfield finally had his career year and he certainly helped all of his surprised fantasy managers. With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Mayfield had WR Mike Evans, a running game and decent line play. Darnold is similarly a journeyman, but he’s also similarly in the right place at the right time.

Don’t be surprised if … Tampa Bay shifts from Rachaad White to Bucky Irving for early-down work.

Perhaps this feels unfair so early, after White blossomed in his second season (coinciding with Mayfield’s ascension). However, White did his best work last season as a pass catcher. Volume keyed his rise in fantasy, to some degree. White averaged only 3.6 yards per rush.

On Sunday, he turned 15 carries into a bleh 31 yards, but he was dynamic as a receiver, averaging 12.5 yards on six catches. Irving is smaller than White, but quicker and shiftier. Yes, it’s too early to predict the change from one game and, even though the rookie Irving averaged 6.9 yards on his nine rushes, half of his game total came on a late 31-yard scamper. Still, this feels like a pending timeshare, and Irving is readily available in 79.3% of ESPN leagues.

Don’t be surprised if … Saquon Barkley takes 50% of the TD runs that used to go to Jalen Hurts.

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Should fantasy managers be all in on Saquon Barkley?

Daniel Dopp and Stephania Bell explain why Saquon Barkley’s role in the Eagles offense could mean big things for fantasy managers moving forward.

Hurts surely performed a bit unevenly for the Philadelphia Eagles in Brazil last Friday. It was a mixture of positive plays and negative ones, with confounding decision-making. The quarterback was ineffective as a runner, his longest play being an 8-yard gain midway through the fourth quarter. Even the renowned Tush Push was far from clean.

Barkley isn’t going to score three touchdowns every game, but the Eagles will shower him with all the volume he can handle — especially at the goal line. That will lessen Hurts’ impact. Ultimately, Barkley is scoring double-digit touchdowns on the ground. Hurts, for the first time since his 2020 rookie campaign, will fall short and, if he keeps throwing footballs to the other team, he may fall outside of the top-five fantasy QBs, too.

Don’t be surprised if … the Browns eventually pivot to backup QB Jameis Winston.

Also, don’t be surprised if that doesn’t make things better.

It’s little surprise that Deshaun Watson played terribly against the Dallas Cowboys. Watson played terribly in his truncated Browns debut season of 2022, but everyone gave him a pass since he had missed 2021. Last season, when healthy (and it was hard to tell exactly when that was, really), Watson was not better. On Sunday, he averaged just 3.8 yards per attempt.

Don’t blame it all on Cowboys star Micah Parsons, either. Watson isn’t good anymore. The worst contract in the league keeps him starting, but there’s a reason no team has wanted Winston to start for them for years, too. He threw for 5,000 yards in 2019 with the Buccaneers — but with 30 interceptions, and that is the number NFL execs look at.

This situation is somewhat like the Jets of last season after Aaron Rodgers was done after four plays. Their defense was outstanding. Solid coaching. Awful QB play. The Browns may win half of their games sans competent QB play, but there is no simple answer here.