As we focus on NFL Week 2 picks, it’s important to recognize that many pool players often overreact to Week 1 results, creating opportunities to find value by staying grounded in long-term data.

Today we will highlight five picks for your 2024 pick’em or confidence pools, focusing on which teams will likely sustain their Week 1 success and which ones could bounce back after a rough start.

This analysis is brought to you by PoolGenius, the only site that uses advanced data and game theory to maximize your edge in football pick’em contests. Since 2014, an average of 74 percent of PoolGenius subscribers each year have reported winning a prize in at least one pick’em pool.

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Week 2 presents one team favored by nearly 10 points, and several other options favored by around a touchdown. On the surface, this offers more potential teams to consider compared to last week. Below, we’ll break down which popular options make sense, weighing the pros and cons of each.

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Week 2 NFL Pick’em: How to identify value picks

Making accurate predictions is just one part of the strategy for improving your chances in a football pool. It’s not particularly difficult either, as point spreads offer a quick and accurate assessment of each team’s win probability. Few people can consistently out-predict Vegas odds over the long term.

The real advantage in pick’em pools comes from effectively applying game theory, as you only rise in your pool’s standings by scoring points that your opponents miss. This means that optimal pick strategy involves forecasting pick popularity — in other words, anticipating how your opponents will pick each game.

Once you understand each team’s win odds and expected pick popularity, two basic tactics should help you start to generate long-term success in football pick’em pools:

1. Look for unpopular picks that might be worth a calculated gamble.
2. Avoid following the crowd into the trendy upset picks of the week.

The picks below provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your 2024 Week 2 picks from your contest opponents by taking on little or no additional risk. In a season-long pick’em pool, you almost certainly shouldn’t pick all five (especially the upset picks) because it would be too risky overall. But they’re all worthy of consideration in certain situations.

To learn more about why the size and rules of your pick’em pool should influence your picks, check out our free articles on winning football pool strategy, or use our Football Pick’em Picks product to get customized recommendations for your pool.

Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data are accurate as of 6:30 pm ET on Tuesday, September 3rd, but this information can change between publication and kickoff. Our product updates all data multiple times per day to provide the latest numbers.

Week 2 NFL Pick’em: Top picks and analysis

Indianapolis Colts (at Packers)
Point Spread: -3
Pick Popularity: 60%
Category: Value Favorite

Packers QB Jordan Love is expected to miss the game after suffering a knee injury at the end of the loss to the Eagles. As a result, the Packers are likely to start Malik Willis, a quarterback with three career starts who has never thrown a touchdown pass so far in his career. Willis has struggled with poor pocket awareness (with a striking 18% sack rate) and has completed just over half of his pass attempts.

Due to the quarterback situation, the Colts have moved from underdogs to favorites, though public backing for the Colts has been somewhat cautious. The four other favorites within a half-point of the Colts’ spread are averaging 77% popularity this week, making the Colts the best value play in this range.

Denver Broncos (vs. Steelers)
Point Spread: +3
Pick Popularity: 22%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Prize Pools

Pittsburgh won as an underdog at Atlanta without scoring a touchdown, relying on six field goals and a +3 turnover margin. Meanwhile, Denver rookie Bo Nix struggled in his first start at Seattle, averaging only 3.3 yards per attempt and throwing two interceptions. As a result, the Steelers have become a popular road favorite.

Russell Wilson’s status for this week remains uncertain, but regardless, Pittsburgh appears to have a subpar offense and is playing their second consecutive road game.

Our models favor the Broncos compared to their market odds. With their low popularity and the public’s reaction, this looks like a value upset gamble worth considering in weekly pools.

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Arizona Cardinals (vs. LA Rams)
Point Spread: -1
Pick Popularity: 34%
Category: Unpopular Coin Flip Game

The Rams dealt with some offensive line injuries on Sunday night and lost WR Puka Nacua. Early line movement has shifted Arizona to the favorite in this game, but the public is still backing the Rams at nearly a two-to-one ratio.

This makes Arizona a strong value pick in what oddsmakers consider the closest matchup of the week.

New York Giants (at Commanders)
Point Spread: +1.5
Pick Popularity: 23%
Category: Value Gamble in Weekly Prize Pools

The Giants struggled in Week 1, managing only 6 points on 240 yards of total offense, which resulted in the worst Yards-per-points ratio of the week. The silver lining is that teams with such poor Week 1 performances have historically been good underdog values in Week 2.

Washington’s defense was dismantled by Tampa Bay, allowing scores on every drive except for the final possession’s kneel-down. This comes after a season where they ranked last in the league in points allowed. Despite Washington’s public popularity, the line moved down a full point on Tuesday. 

Detroit Lions (vs. Tampa Bay)
Point Spread: -7
Popularity: 88%
Category: Reasonably Priced Favorite

It’s not that Detroit is an unpopular pick—88% of pool participants are still backing them to beat Tampa Bay. However, six other teams with lower win odds are also being picked by at least 85% of the public.

When several teams with similar popularity have lower win odds, the best strategy is to stick with the favorite that has the best odds of the group. If you’re in a confidence pool, consider assigning them a relatively higher confidence point value. 

Get expert NFL Week 2 picks for your pool

Maximizing your edge in football pick’em contests requires extensive data, math, and time. In addition to analyzing win odds and pick popularity to identify the best value picks, it’s crucial to assess how much overall risk to take with your selections.

Some weeks, being selective and strategic with upsets can pay off, while in other weeks, taking multiple risks may not be justified if the potential reward isn’t significant enough or depending on your position in the standings.

That’s why we developed the Football Pick’em Picks product. It’s the only tool that provides customized weekly pick recommendations for NFL and college football pick’em pools, using advanced algorithms that give you the best chance to win. All you need to do is press a button.

Whether you’re in game-winner pools, point spread pools, confidence pools, ‘Pick Six’ pools, or pools with season and/or weekly prizes, this product has you covered. Try it out for free, and good luck with your NFL Week 2 picks!

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