Saints vs. Falcons hasn’t been much of a rivalry lately, with New Orleans posting a 10-3 record over their last 13 meetings. If that weren’t enough to feel confident about using the Saints in Week 4 NFL knockout pool picks, then perhaps this stat will. Even though Sunday’s meeting takes place in Atlanta, the Saints have won five of the last six matchups in opponent territory, and the Falcons have lost both of their home games this season. 

On the other hand, the Saints’ prolific offense was held to just 12 points in a home loss in Week 3. Philadelphia may have exposed weaknesses in New Orleans’ offense, and the NFL is a copycat league, so Atlanta could target those same areas. This is just one of a handful of games that feature a team with a winning record versus one with a losing record, but is this one you should consider with Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks and NFL eliminator pool picks? Before finalizing any Week 4 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. In Week 1, the model recommended the Saints as its top survivor pick. New Orleans won in 79% of SportsLine’s simulations, and the Saints dominated Carolina, 47-10, in what was the most lopsided game of the opening week. Then in Week 2, the model recommended the Chargers, who were also picked to win in 79% of simulations, and L.A. also manhandled the Panthers, 26-3. In Week 3, the model backed Seattle to win 74% of the time, and the Seahawks easily dispatched of Miami, 24-3.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the 49ers (-10, 39.5) versus New England, even though the Niners are the first double-digit favorite of the season. Both teams won their first game before losing in Weeks 2 and 3, while San Francisco has lost much more than a couple of games. Arguably its three best offensive players missed Sunday’s loss to the Rams in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, with the first two out for extended time.

With those absences, the talent level between these teams is a lot more even than the large spread indicates. Attrition caught up with San Fran in Week 3 as it was previously 50-0 when up by 14-plus points in the second half before an equally-banged up Rams squad mounted a huge comeback victory. At the very least, New England is healthy and whole, in addition to possessing a top-10 scoring defense to face a depleted Niners offense. While the 49ers are projected to win in well over 70% of simulations, the model is saving San Francisco for another week. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that nailed its Weeks 1, 2 and 3 survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.