The Democrat Eugene Vindman stood before a group of roughly 30 fellow veterans and warned of an impending danger if Republicans like his opponent, Derrick Anderson, won key House races next month: a little-known policy called schedule F.

The policy, initially embraced by Donald Trump in the final months of his first term in office and now included in the rightwing manifesto known as Project 2025, would transform previously nonpartisan jobs in the federal government into political appointments. The change could fundamentally alter and perhaps jeopardize the employment of tens or even hundreds of thousands of government workers, including 14% of the residents in Virginia’s seventh district, where Vindman is running for Congress.

Vindman knows something about the politicization of government posts. In 2020, Trump fired Vindman and his twin brother, Alexander Vindman, after they played a key role in the former president’s first impeachment. The brothers, who both held senior positions on Trump’s national security council, raised alarms about the then president’s alleged attempt to pressure Ukraine to launch an investigation of Joe Biden and his son Hunter. They were both dismissed days after Trump’s impeachment trial concluded.

“This idea of politicizing the civil service – I know that means a lot to the people in this room,” Vindman told the veterans at his campaign event. “You know how you prevent something like Schedule F and Project 2025 from being implemented? You vote for Democrats up and down the ticket.”

Despite Anderson’s efforts to distance himself from Project 2025, Vindman has sought to directly tie his opponent to the most controversial elements of the manifesto. If Republicans win the White House and control of Congress, they could implement Trump’s plans to politicize and relocate large numbers of federal employees.

The US government employs more than 2 million civilian workers, roughly 55,000 of whom live in the seventh district. Those jobs can provide steady employment that may pay better than other sectors, particularly for those with lower levels of education. According to data compiled by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average hourly wage for a federal employee was $44.20 compared with $31.48 across all occupations.

Experts predict that moving government jobs out of Virginia would have devastating economic consequences. Terry Clower, a professor at George Mason University and director of Mason’s Center for Regional Analysis, estimated that the policy would cost the state between $27bn-$28bn annually. Vindman predicted a “major recession” if federal agencies left the region.

“I was a military service member, but I empathize with the civil servants that are working hard every day on behalf of the American people, and they’re just doing their jobs and being demonized,” Vindman said.

Vindman’s success – or failure – to link Anderson with Trump’s proposed overhaul of the federal workforce could determine the winner of this open seat in a battleground district that will be crucial in deciding the House majority.

“Whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican, you don’t want your job to be subject to some sort of political loyalty oath,” Vindman said. “You’re talking about people that are experts in either receiving threats from abroad or just understanding the weather and replacing them with political hacks. I’ve seen what that looks like from the White House myself, and it’s profoundly damaging to national security.”

Vindman has said he never envisioned himself as a politician, but his experience in the Trump administration spurred him to launch a congressional bid after the Democratic incumbent, Abigail Spanberger, chose to run for governor rather than seek re-election in the district. Vindman’s willingness to speak out against Trump won him some fans among Virginia Democrats and turbocharged his fundraising operation, helping him emerge victorious from a crowded primary in June.

David Buckley, a 66-year-old voter who attended the Vets for Vindman event in Woodbridge, said: “He’s a man of character, somebody who’s willing to step into the breach, so I’m impressed by that.”

But Anderson, a former army green beret turned lawyer, has mocked Vindman’s congressional bid as a “revenge tour” against Trump. Perhaps wary of capitalizing on his national profile, Vindman has not made his clash with Trump a central focus of his campaign, avoiding even mentioning the former president’s name during his debate against Anderson earlier this month.

Anderson, like Trump, meanwhile, has pleaded ignorance of Project 2025, saying at the debate this month: “I didn’t know about it until my opponent continued to talk about it over and over again.”

Asked about the specific proposal to overhaul the federal workforce, Anderson told the NPR affiliate VPM this month, “I’m not going to vote for legislation that’s going to remove jobs from our district; bottom line.”

Anderson’s efforts to distance himself from some of the former president’s most controversial proposals appears to have helped keep the race close, as internal polls show him and Vindman running neck and neck. The Cook Political Report recently moved the district from “lean Democrat” to “toss up”, a reflection of the seat’s increased competitiveness without Spanberger on the ticket.

As he has downplayed concerns about Project 2025, Anderson has tried to redirect attention toward issues where Republicans traditionally hold an advantage, namely border security and the economy. Anderson’s campaign manager, Diego de la Peña, said in a statement, “Vindman would continue the failed policies of the past that gave us brutally high prices and an open border. Derrick is focused on the future of this district – his home district. That means lowering costs, closing the border, and working together to balance the budget.”

This strategy has proven successful here before. In 2021, the Republican governor Glenn Youngkin carried the district by seven points after Biden won the district by the same margin in the presidential election one year earlier, according to the Cook Political Report.

Youngkin won in part by pitching himself as a less extreme version of Trump, noted Mark Rozell, founding dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. Anderson appears to be pursuing a similar approach.

“So that’s a calling card for Vindman and his campaign: to heighten awareness of Project 2025 and alert federal workers in the district of what potentially could happen should the Republicans win majorities in both houses of Congress,” Rozell said.

Vindman said he has heard from many constituents who have expressed deep concern about the potential effect on the federal workforce if Republicans win next month. Maurice Pettiford, a 63-year-old voter and 20-year veteran of the state department who hosted the Woodbridge event, predicted a policy like schedule F would limit the capabilities of federal agencies.

“If the government is going to be effective, you need people with experience. You need people who are going to be loyal to whatever the mission is,” Pettiford said. “In all my years of working, we didn’t care whether [the president] was Democrat or Republican. It was about getting the job done.”

Vindman expects the race to be close, as polls suggest the House majority could be decided by just a handful of seats. In an encouraging sign for Vindman, Spanberger won her last election in 2022 by about five points, and Virginia Democrats have generally performed better when Trump was on the ballot, Rozell noted.

“Quite possibly, the national narrative is what Vindman really is counting on in this campaign, which is: don’t give the Republicans the majority,” Rozell said. “If Trump’s elected especially, make sure the Democrats hold at least one house in Congress. Otherwise Project 2025 could end up being a real thing.”

Although Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020, polls conducted before he withdrew from the presidential race suggested he could be in trouble there this year. Since taking over the top of the ticket, surveys have consistently shown Kamala Harris leading Trump by several points in Virginia, which could help pull Vindman across the finish line as well.

“Will there be a down-ticket benefit for Vindman in an extremely close, contested House race? Quite likely there will be,” Rozell said. “Will it be enough? We don’t know.”