The arrival of Week 11 means there are two months left in the 2024 NFL regular season. That’s plenty of time for Sporting News’ weekly picks and predcitions against the spread to finish strong.

With the weather getting colder and more injury attrition hitting teams, our fearless forecasting is even more challenging.

Here’s diving in again to navigate those waters with every intention of staying well afloat.

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NFL picks against the spread for Week 11

•  Game of Midweek: Commanders at Eagles (-3.5, 49 o/u)

Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video

The Commanders’ defense has been overachieving under coach Dan Quinn, but they are still vulnerable to downfield passing. The Eagles have been hot with Jalen Hurts spreading and stretching the field. Jayden Daniels can answer with some big plays of his own, playing off his team’s own strong traditional rushing attack. Philadelphia has a little more firepower to outlast Washington in a thriller at home. 

Pick: Eagles win 27-24 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE: Johnny Newton in tears over late-game mistake vs. Steelers

• Game of the Week: Chiefs at Bills (-2.5, 45.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Chiefs’ defense will catch another break here with Josh Allen’s key receivers hurting, which will lessen the burden after they contain the Bills’ running game. Kansas City has done what’s needed to win every game through offense, defense, and special teams. The team that has the cleaner game and is pressured into fewer turnovers will win, and the Chiefs will make a strong statement that they remain the clear AFC team to beat.

Pick: Chiefs win 23-20.

MORE: How Chiefs stayed perfect | Did Patrick Mahomes ask ref for help? | Taylor Swift meets with ref before Chiefs game

• Lock of the Week: 49ers (-6.5, 49 o/u) over Seahawks

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers’ offense got going a lot more with Christian McCaffrey in the lineup against the Buccaneers, and they will finish better in the red zone in his second game back. McCaffrey and Brock Purdy tend to crush it together at home, and the Seahawks’ reeling defense won’t be much improved after a bye. Geno Smith will do his best to pass Seattle into the game, but San Francisco is more loaded in the more favorable matchup.

Pick: 49ers win 34-17 and cover the spread.

MORE: CMC is back — and so is 49ers’ Super Bowl offense | Deebo Samuel explains spat with teammates

• Upset of the Week: Steelers (+3, 47 o/u) over Ravens 

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Steelers’ quarterback plan has been executed to perfection, as they turned it over to Russell Wilson at the right time to rev up the deep passing game and also open up the traditional running game. Pittsburgh can pick apart Baltimore’s pass defense in the short-to-intermediate middle. The Ravens can answer well with their running game and Lamar Jackson’s complementary mobility, but the hosts score the first big early win in the two-team AFC North race between the archrivals.

Pick: Steelers win 27-24.

MORE STEELERS: Russell Wilson validates Mike Tomlin’s QB decision with win over Commanders

MORE RAVENS: Kyle Hamilton injury update | Derrick Henry wardrobe malfunction

• Packers (-6, 41 o/u) at Bears

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Packers will be coming back from a bye with better play from Jordan Love, who will be supported well by a rested Josh Jacobs going against a weak Bears run defense. The Bears also are breaking down vs. the pass more and putting too much on Caleb Williams to carry a dysfunctional, inconsistent offense. Green Bay’s defense will exploit that well.

Pick: Packers in 24-13 and cover the spread.

MORE: Is Matt Eberflus on hot seat?

• Jaguars at Lions (-13, 47.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Jaguars are one more really bad loss away from sealing the fate of coach Doug Pederson, and it could definitely come in this unfriendly feline trip to the Lions’ den. The Lions’ offense survived a frustrating night in Houston and will be ready to explode vs. a weak defense in every which way. This is a big number in Detroit’s favor, but the Lions should be relentless on offense and defense.

Pick: Lions win 38-14 and cover the spread.

MORE: Did Lions get away with key defensive pass interference vs. Texans?

• Vikings (-6.5, 39.5 o/u) at Titans

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Vikings’ defense and special teams saved them in Jacksonville on an off day for the offense despite multiple red-zone trips. Tennessee can also be a tricky AFC South trip, but Minnesota should feel confident its pass defense can cause a lot of issues for Will Levis with Brian Flores’ aggressive scheming. Sam Darnold should play better, given he might be auditioning to replace Levis as the Titans’ QB in 2025.

Pick: Vikings win 24-19 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE: Vikings taunt Jaguars’ mascot after takeaways

• Raiders at Dolphins (-7, 45.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Raiders will be rested coming off a bye while the Dolphins are operating on a short week. Las Vegas’ run defense will be the biggest concern here, as it will have loads of trouble slowing down speedy De’Von Achane. Miami’s defense finally gets a break against a weaker rushing attack and passing offense that is bound to stumble, regardless of the QB.

Pick: Dolphins win 24-14 and cover the spread.

WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers

• Rams (-4.5, 43.5 o/u) at Patriots

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Rams’ defense has a superstar rookie in Jared Verse who can help put good pressure on fellow rookie Drake Maye. The Patriots’ pass rush was anomalously great in Chicago, but Los Angeles likes to get the ball out quickly with Matthew Stafford. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can be a downfield matchup nightmare. The Patriots, however, can make it interesting late with some more fearless playmaking, running, and passing from Maye.

Pick: Rams win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE: NFL playoff picture | NFL power rankings | Week 11 NFL picks

• Browns at Saints (-1, 44 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Jameis Winston will return to New Orleans to battle the man he backed up last year, Derek Carr. The Saints played hard in their first game under interim coach Darren Rizzi, but they needed some breaks in the form of missed field-goal attempts to survive. Cleveland comes off a bye to find a few more yards through the run and pass for a mild road upset.

Pick: Browns win 23-20.

MORE: Interim coach Darren Rizzi explains why he expected ‘crappy day’ vs. Falcons

• Colts at Jets (-3.5, 45 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Colts will stay in this game with Jonathan Taylor’s running early, only to put Joe Flacco in more uncomfortable situations by the second half after setting up Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, and Davante Adams for a get-well outside passing game. The Jets also can shatter the Colts’ porous run defense with Breece Hall.

Pick: Jets win 24-13 and cover the spread.

MORE: Jeff Ulbrich takes blame for loss | Is Aaron Rodgers on hot seat?

• Falcons at Broncos (-1.5, 44 o/u)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

The Falcons are up-and-down with their offense and defense from week to week. The Broncos have a tough pass defense for Kirk Cousins, but he’ll get some needed help from Bijan Robinson’s red-hot running and receiving. Bo Nix doesn’t have the same pop around him after the Falcons stop the run.

Pick: Falcons win 24-20

• Bengals at Chargers (-1.5, 47 o/u)

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

The Chargers have destroyed the weaker offensive opponents on their schedule, scoring wins over the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos, Saints, Browns, and Titans. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and the Bengals do not fall into that category. Cincy’s offense should stay hot after a mini-bye, operating in a non-hostile environment. Justin Herbert is also on fire, but in a sneaky high-scoring passing duel, trust more in the higher first-round pick from the 2020 draft.

Pick: Bengals win 34-31.

• Texans (-7, 42 o/u) at Cowboys

Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

Houston has been a bit sloppy with its passing and ball protection, and they come into the game with a two-game losing streak. Dallas was embarrassed at home in Week 10 and should put forth at least a strong defensive effort with Micah Parsons firing things up. Unfortunately, the Cowboys, with whoever’s at QB, won’t find enough offense, even if CeeDee Lamb can find the ball at home better under the lights.

Pick: Texans win 23-19 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE: Jerry Jones says Mike McCarthy’s job is safe — for now | Micah Parsons not concerned about McCarthy’s job

Stats of the Week

• Week 10 record straight up: 9-4
• Week 10 record against the spread: 6-5
• Season-to-date straight up: 103-50
• Season-to-date against the spread: 78-70