Wall Street became more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this month after the release of the November jobs report.
Investors’ bets that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point rate cut stood at around 72% before the report’s release at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the futures market. Those odds were at roughly 87% shortly after the stock market opened.
The Fed seems to be on track to deliver this year’s third rate cut at its December 17-18 meeting mostly because it seems that elevated borrowing costs still have tight grip on the economy, coupled with the belief that inflation is destined to slow further, despite recent inflation data coming in slightly hotter than expected.
When the Fed began to cut in September, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said central bankers want to prevent any deterioration in the labor market. There have been some lingering signs of underlying fragility, such as the concentration of job growth over the past year.
“If you look at private sector job growth, and you exclude health care and education, growth has mainly been driven by hospitality, while other cyclical sectors are not generating a lot of net job gains,” Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, told CNN. “This concentration of job growth is not as positive as the aggregate numbers suggest. I think the Federal Reserve is aware of that.”
Other examples of a vulnerable job market include the steady run-up in unemployment over the past year, even though the latest rate remains at a historically low level, and longer stretches of joblessness, according to data on unemployment claims.
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