Why Gennaro picked the Bills: Because I’m insane. At least according to a trite quotation often misattributed to Albert Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Kansas City just keeps doing the same thing over and over again, and here I am expecting a different result.

Playing in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs are eyeing a fifth Super Bowl appearance in six seasons. Over the past 13 months, Kansas City’s starters have lost one game. Of course, that lone setback came against these Bills. The Chiefs’ mid-November defeat at Buffalo wasn’t surprising, either, considering the Bills were favored in the game. Not to mention, the victory improved Josh Allen‘s regular-season record against Patrick Mahomes to 4-1. But it’s a different story in the playoffs, where Mahomes boasts a perfect 3-0 mark in the QB duel. So, what makes me believe Allen will finally slay his Chief tormentor in the postseason? Well, speaking of insanity …

I think the Bills can out-Chief the Chiefs.

Unlike Andy Reid’s early teams with Mahomes under center, the contemporary Chiefs don’t overwhelm opponents with shock and awe. These days, Kansas City is more boringly effective, as Mahomes himself underscored after last Saturday’s 23-14 win over Houston: “Everybody’s winners on this team, and I think that’s what makes us special. So, it doesn’t always have to be an offensive explosion, it doesn’t always have to be the defense locking it down — it’s just, who can find a way to get a win and how can we do that?” These Chiefs want to establish the run, take care of the football and make splash plays on defense. The Bills can do that — only better! Buffalo finished the regular season with the NFL’s ninth-best rushing attack (131.2 yards per game), while Kansas City ranked 22nd (105.3 ypg). The Bills committed the fewest turnovers in the league (eight); the Chiefs tied for fourth-fewest (14). Defensively, the teams had the exact same sack total (39), but Buffalo produced a dozen more takeaways (32-20).

I know what you’re thinking: Kansas City has the ultimate trump card in the ultimate winner. That’s fair. Mahomes’ ability to shapeshift — and play whatever style is necessary to win any given matchup — is the kind of quarterbacking mastery that typically separates him from other elites at the position. But this season, it sure seems like Buffalo’s signal-caller is closing that gap. Gone are the days of superfluous hero ball from No. 17. Shoot, the Bills just beat a dynamic Ravens team with Allen totaling 147 yards of offense. This version of Allen doesn’t force things, having slashed his interception total from a career-high 18 last season to a career-low six in this campaign. This version of Allen, like Mahomes, lets the game come to him.

Now, Buffalo’s been better at home than on the road this season, so you can’t overlook the challenge of winning in the unfriendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium. As you can deduce from my predicted score above, I’m not here to tell you this is going to be easy. But neither is winning a ninth consecutive playoff game. That’s the task on tap for Kansas City in its quest for an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat. Call me crazy, but I say the Chiefs fall short in that endeavor.