BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells: 10 American players who could raise the trophy this year

Posted by author March 1, 2025 Tennis

In 2001, Serena Williams won the women’s singles title at Indian Wells and Andre Agassi won the men’s singles title.

Since then, there have been 22 BNP Paribas Opens which means 44 combined singles champions, and only one of those winners has been from the United States. Taylor Fritz won the men’s title in 2022 and that’s it. In the last 24 years, the second-biggest tennis tournament in the United States has witnessed only one American winner.

But in 2025, maybe more than any year during that stretch, Americans seem to be in a position to end that streak. The U.S. is flooding the zone with talented players. There are three American women in the top 5 and two men in the top 10 just for starters, and plenty of others with the game to pull off a win here.

Here are 10 American tennis players who could hold up the trophy at the end of the BNP Paribas Open, in order of likelihood.

Coco Gauff

Don’t take it from me, take it from the American woman who has been in the most finals at Indian Wells and is tied for the most wins, Lindsay Davenport. Davenport said she believes this could be Gauff’s year. While she hesitated to make Gauff a favorite over defending champion Iga Swiatek, Davenport said the conditions at Indian Wells with the slightly slower courts suit Gauff’s game perfectly. Gauff made the semifinal last year, so she’s trending upward at Indian Wells. Also she will celebrate her 21st birthday during the event, so what better way to end the tournament than by — legally — sipping champagne?

Taylor Fritz

Fritz owns eight career titles, but still none bigger than his win here at Indian Wells in 2022 when he beat Rafael Nadal in the final. Fritz’s best moment since was making the U.S. Open final in 2024, but he’s due for another signature win. He’s the No. 4-ranked player in the world and has a game that fits well here at Indian Wells, clearly. He’s a SoCal native and that seems to have given him an edge over the years. Aside from Carlos Alcaraz, the men’s field isn’t quite as loaded at the top as it usually is, so perhaps Fritz can navigate his way to the final Sunday again.

Madison Keys

Keys just turned 30 and moved into the top 5 for the first time in her career after her wildly impressive Australian Open victory which included wins over Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, the top two players in the world. If Keys arrives at Indian Wells with that same form, she’s more than capable of winning. She hasn’t played since that Australian Open win more than a month ago, so she may have to shake off a little rust. Also, she’ll have to put her previous efforts at this event out of her memory bank because she has not had much success here. She has played 11 times in the desert and never advanced past the quarterfinals.

Jessica Pegula

Much like Keys, Pegula, who is 31 years old, is playing the best tennis of her career. She made the U.S. Open final in September and has won three Masters 1000 titles in the last two years. But she also has not had much success in Indian Wells in her career. In six main-draw appearances, Pegula reached the quarterfinals once and that is her deepest run. Last year she was upset as the No. 6 seed, losing her first match of the tournament to Anna Blinkova. If Pegula can get on a run and get the home-country crowd behind her, she’s capable of a win here.

Tommy Paul

Is it Tommy’s time? He seems to have reached a point where he advances far into big tournaments but can’t get the breakthrough win over an elite player. He lost in the Australian Open to Alexander Zverev, he lost in the U.S. Open to Jannik Sinner and he lost at Wimbledon to Alcaraz. He’s taking care of business for the most part in tournaments. He won a title in Stockholm in the fall, but he needs to come up big in the biggest moments and perhaps a tournament like this where the crowd will be fully behind him can be the place and time. It should be noted that he had to withdraw from the previous event with food poisoning so we’ll see if that lingers into this tournament and affects his form.

Emma Navarro

With the three American women in the top five, it’s easy to forget about Navarro, but she is playing some great tennis in her own right and is stationed in the top 10 of the world rankings for her efforts. Navarro made the quarterfinals in Australia, losing to Swiatek, and had a great run to the semifinals at the U.S. Open, falling to Aryna Sabalenka. Even moreso than the three Americans ranked ahead of her, Navarro’s game may be suited to the conditions at Indian Wells as she is used to a slower court after playing a lot on clay courts in her youth. If you’re trying to find an outside-the-box pick to win this event, Navarro is a viable candidate.

Ben Shelton

A strong frame and an entertaining game, Shelton is a fan favorite who will definitely have the American crowd on his side as the tournament progresses. If he can feed off that energy, he’s a legitimate contender at this event. Shelton is coming off his best performance in a slam, making it to the semifinal in Australia before losing to Sinner. Shelton needs a high-end win like this on his ledger if he wants to grow out of the fun-player-nice-story phase into the legit-championship-contender phase.

Amanda Anisimova

Things seemed to have clicked for Anisimova. She just won the Qatar Open in February for her first career Masters 1000 victory, and she has been flying up the world rankings where she now stands at 18 — up from 41 on Feb. 1. She has a solid all-around game and has been dipping her toe into contention at big events over the years, but now is the time for her to dive in head-first. If she gets a full head of steam going at this event, watch out. She has not had much success at Indian Wells, though, having failed to make the quarterfinals in any of her five attempts. She missed last year’s BNP with an injury.

Sebastian Korda

Korda is 24. He’s been playing at a consistent enough level that he is inside the top 25 players in the world. He made the final at the tournament in Adelaide, the lead-in to the Australian Open, so he’s already had success in 2025. Now it’s time to have a breakthrough moment. He’s only played this tournament three times and never made it out of the third round, but it feels like he’s on the cusp of making a move into the top 10. A win here this fortnight will make an official statement that he’s arrived.

Learner Tien

How fast is this teen-age American flying up the world rankings? The BNP Paribas Open gave him a wild-card entry into the field two weeks ago, but his play shot him up the rankings to the point where he was in the main draw anyway, and they were able to give the wild-card to someone else. Tien really burst on the scene in Australia when he stunned Daniil Medvedev and advanced to the fourth round. Just last week, he beat world No. 2 Alexander Zverev in Mexico. The 19-year-old is a SoCal native, born in Irvine, so he will truly have a home-crowd edge. It might be premature to say he can win this event, but a deep run isn’t out of the question.

So there you have it, 10 American players to watch and that list doesn’t include former champions like Frances Tiafoe and Danielle Collins and young gun Alex Michelsen. Both draws are rife with Americans. Will one of them break recent history and stand alone at the end?

Shad Powers is a columnist for The Desert Sun. Reach him at shad.powers@desertsun.com.