Total confidence score: 35 pts

Route to Super Bowl:

• Wild Card Round: BYE
• Divisional Round: vs. Commanders
• Conference Championship: vs. Eagles/Vikings/Rams

Super Bowl odds: +275

Detroit’s path to the Super Bowl isn’t without peril, starting this weekend with the challenge of slowing down OROY front-runner Jayden Daniels, but when you compare it to the meat grinder trio of heavyweights in the AFC, there’s at least a little more oxygen in the NFC. The biggest difference between the Lions and Chiefs, when it comes to what lies ahead, is Kansas City will have to beat one of the top two MVP candidates to get to the Super Bowl, assuming it takes care of business against the Texans. Home-field advantage and better quarterback play give Dan Campbell’s squad the leg up over Philly, the stiffest remaining competition in the NFC. Will whatever edge the Lions enjoy now still exist if they get to the Super Bowl and Patrick Mahomes is waiting for them in New Orleans? That might be the question of the year. — Dan