PROJECTED POINTS: 18.4

Matt: Burrow finally had a great game, to the tune of 25.4 fantasy points on Monday Night Football! Now he’s an auto-start again, right?! Well … no. That was the first time Burrow topped his projection since November 2023. And it was against the QB-friendly Commanders, who dish out 20-burgers like a suburban dad at a barbecue.

While Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to the position since 2023, the Panthers have allowed the fifth-fewest, at just 13.6 per game. That’s primarily because they’ve allowed the fewest pass attempts per game while consistently playing from behind. This might be a big Zack Moss game, but Burrow will underperform once again — he’s a fringe QB1 but will come up just short of this projection.