Golf betting tips: The American Express final round

2pts win Justin Thomas at 4/1 (General)

2pts Xander Schauffele for a top-5 finish at 7/5 (Sky Bet, SpreadEx)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

The 20-year-old University of Alabama star Nick Dunlap has already achieved something special in the amateur game, winning both the US Junior and US Amateur Championship, a feat which saw him match just one other man (Tiger Woods). But this Sunday he has a golden opportunity to become the first golfer from the unpaid ranks, and only the eighth of all-time, to win on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson in 1991.

Equalling the achievements of the two greatest players of the last 30 years would be some announcement to the world and if it were only a case of trying to ride the wave of the week you’d maybe expect him to join them. He opened his week at The American Express with an 8-under 64 on the Nicklaus Tournament Course, added a 7-under 65 on the final round-hosting Pete Dye Stadium Course on Friday and thrashed a sensational 12-under 60 at La Quinta Country Club in the third round.

He’s made just one bogey through 54 holes, he’s matched the low round scored by any amateur in PGA Tour history and his pre-final round total of 27-under 189 has him three blows clear of Sam Burns, four ahead of Justin Thomas, six free of Christiaan Bezuidenhout and he holds a seven-shot advantage over Eric Cole, Si Woo Kim, Adam Hadwin, JT Poston and Xander Schauffele.

“Didn’t think I was going to have to deal with a freaking college kid shooting 60 today,” Thomas joked ahead of his Sunday pairing with the leader. “He’s a stud. He’s the real deal. I think how well he’s handled the big moments, it says a lot about somebody. It seems like the bigger the stage, the better he plays. I’ve never played with him before. I probably would have preferred our first time in a practice round.”

Dunlap himself said: “The putter felt so good, the hole looked like a funnel.” He then acknowledged that, for all the low numbers, there is threat on the Dye Course. “There’s out of bounds everywhere,” he said. “And there’s a lot of water out there. I’ll just hit one good shot at a time, and try to stack ’em and give myself a lot of good looks.” He also knows there will be nerves: “Oh absolutely. If I keep playing well it’s only going to magnify. Your heart’s pumping. Just trying to embrace it.”

The modern-day elite amateur is, of course, a very different beast to those of the past. In terms of equipment, funding, fitness and attitude Dunlap is pretty much amateur in name alone, but the rarity of actual wins at this level demonstrates the continuing difficulty. As does grabbing a winning chance. For example, there were five three-shot 54-hole leaders on the main tours in 2023: Thriston Lawrence in the Joburg Open, Ben Silverman at the Sanderson Farms Championship, Joost Luiten in the BMW International Open, Jon Rahm in the Genesis Invitational and Rory McIlroy in the Dubai Desert Classic. Only the latter pair converted the win and we all know what they had in common among that quintet. Dunlap is available at 6/4 to join elite company in multiple ways.

(A final thought about the pace-setter and one for fans of exceptionally niche pub quizzes. There have been three amateur winners on the European Tour in the 21st century – so, if Dunlap wins, who will be the only golfer to have been in all four fields when amateurs won on the two main tours in the 21st century? Answer below.)

Louisiana-man Burns has so far won in Texas, Mississippi, Florida and Georgia. In other words, he’s a Bible belt specialist and, while Matthew, Mark, Luke and John have almost certainly got nothing to do with that geographical specificity, conditions probably have. If he is to break the duck elsewhere, California is likely as good a place as any based on three top 20s finishes in this event and strong bids for victories at Silverado and Riviera. He’s best price 5/2.

This is THOMAS’s first visit to the event since 2015 when he was himself the 54-hole leader and he referenced that experience in his Saturday post-round interview. “I should have won,” he said. “I was tied for the lead or one-shot lead or something with three holes to go.” It’s not the only factor serving to motivate him. He’s also been slowly regaining form over the last six months and is aware that he is chasing involvement in the year’s big events. A win would turn that situation around.

He played the Dye Stadium Course on Saturday when carding a brilliant 61 and his stats are excellent this week. He has a solid rank of 25th for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, but is first for Approach, eighth Around the Green and third for Putting. He’ll enjoy the chase, is itching in a good way for another win and 4/1 is the call.

Of the others, Bezuidenhout is yet to win at this level, Cole is the same yet super consistent (six top 15s in his last seven starts) and was born and bred on resort courses, Kim was the 2021 winner of the event, Hadwin is a three-time top three tournament finisher, Poston has started 2024 with a pair of top six finishes and SCHAUFFELE was third in the tournament last year courtesy of a final round 62.

The books recognise Schauffele’s quality and memories of that 62 in making him 22/1 while the others are all 33/1 or bigger. The win is probably beyond all of them but a top five isn’t and it is Schauffele who is the pick at 7/5. He not only has good memories of the course from last year but also from yesterday when he carded a 63.

(Quiz answer: The three European Tour winners since 2000 were Pablo Martin in the 2007 Open de Portugal, Danny Lee in the 2009 Johnnie Walker Classic and Shane Lowry in the same year’s Irish Open – and Alex Noren played in all three. He’s currently T17th and 10 shots back of Dunlap.)

Published at 1012 GMT on 21/01/24