If a butterfly flapping its wings can cause, and potentially change the trajectory of a tornado, then imagine the spectrum of outcomes in altering a single player in one’s daily fantasy lineup.

My plan last week was to build my lineup around a stack from the only matchup on the main slate to exceed a 50-point game total, the Lions and Cardinals.

Choosing Kyler Murray over Jared Goff at quarterback was an easy decision because of Murray’s higher floor. Goff is a statue in the pocket, while Murray has the ability to flow like water through the cracks of a defense. Murray only outscored Goff by .18 points, but I digress.

The difficult choice was between paying up for each QB’s top target (Marvin Harrison Jr. and Amon-Ra St. Brown) who cost $15,600 collectively or gambling on their secondary options (Trey McBride and Jameson Williams) and saving $3,600 to spread across the rest of the lineup.

The savings would help me shoehorn Chris Olave and Brandon Aiyuk, two players who had massive ceilings and were due. I chose upside, which is another way of choosing chaos.

I create many variations of this lineup each week, and in one of those I went with Goff over Murray, and Harrison and St. Brown over McBride and Williams. This forced me to pivot from Aiyuk to Jauan Jennings and replace McBride with Dallas Goedert. I also had to swap out De’Von Achane for Cam Akers (I really didn’t like that).

This butterfly must have been a Queen Alexandra’s birdwing (Google it), because those alterations would’ve boosted a measly 100.38 point total all the way up to 182.98. In fact, Jennings (49.5) and Goedert (30) were two of the biggest scorers on the slate.

Chaos is everywhere.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $3.25 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The Optimal Lineup has netted $30 this season, so I’m in the red $15 with an average score of 111.64 points through three weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

Week 1: 90.16

Week 2: 144.38

Week 3: 100.38

Week 4 Lineup

QB: Justin Fields, Steelers ($5,500)

It’s clear Fields has grown as a passer, but it’s his rushing upside that gives him QB1 potential every week he’s under center, and the Colts have proven inadequate against both this season. Indy allowed Caleb Williams, Fields’ replacement in Chicago, to throw for 363 yards and two touchdowns last week and Malik Willis ran for 41 yards on six carries for the Packers in Week 2.

RB: Jordan Mason, 49ers ($6,700)

Mason played well against the Rams (88 total yards on 21 touches), but Kyle Shanahan oddly enough forgot to run the ball up 24-14 in the fourth quarter. Mason’s price tag should be closer to $8,000 with the volume he’s receiving, which should continue with the Niners as 10-point favorites vs. a Patriots team having to travel cross-country.

RB: James Conner, Cardinals ($6,500)

You can’t go wrong using the top running back for the highest-projected offense on the slate, plus ownership may be muted a bit after Conner laid an egg against the Lions last week.

WR: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals ($7,500)

Both Greg Dortch ($4,300) and Michael Wilson ($4,200) provide solid value with McBride (concussion) out, but Harrison is Murray’s clear-cut No. 1 option against the Commanders’ atrocious pass defense.

WR: Nico Collins, Texans ($7,200)

Collins is the overall WR6 in PPR formats through three weeks. This is a no-brainer with Tank Dell (chest) out and Houston’s offense still having a nasty taste in its mouth after being stifled in Minnesota. Plus, the Jaguars play a man-heavy scheme, and Collins has been top-five in most metrics vs. man coverage since the beginning of 2023.

WR: George Pickens, Steelers ($5,700)

Pickens is primed for a huge breakout game at Indianapolis. Indy’s pace of play will increase play volume for Pittsburgh’s offense and the Colts play the 10th-highest rate of single-high coverage (57.1 percent). Pickens’ first-read target share climbs to over 50 percent when there’s one safety deep. Also, Indianapolis is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers after previously being cooked by Rome Odunze (six receptions for 112 yards and a TD) and Nico Collins (six for 117).

TE: Zach Ertz, Commanders ($4,000)

The tight end position has been a dumpster fire inside a train wreck during a flood in fantasy this season, but Ertz is the overall TE9 in PPR formats through three weeks. He’s provided a safety blanket for rookie savant Jayden Daniels, averaging four receptions per game. All that’s been missing is a TD. I believe he gets one against his former team.

FLEX: Tre Tucker, Raiders ($3,600)

Tucker is a solid flier with Davante Adams (hamstring) out after producing seven receptions for 96 yards and a TD against the Panthers last week. Las Vegas will likely be chasing points against a good Browns’ defense that primarily plays man coverage. Tucker is the only Raiders receiver with the capability to threaten that coverage with Adams sidelined.

DST: Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,300)

The Colts want to run the ball while QB Anthony Richardson has been inaccurate and turnover-friendly to begin the season. The Steelers are sixth in QB pressure rate and very good against the run. This completes my “Steelers start the season 4-0” stack with Fields and Pickens.

Originally Published: September 28, 2024 at 2:05 p.m.