NFL Week 11: Favorite player prop bets using PFF Key Insights

Posted by Admin November 17, 2024 Football

• QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs — over 22.5 completions (-110 on DraftKings): The Chiefs’ formula for success in the passing game has been consistent positive gains rather than the explosive plays, and the Bills’ defense likewise limits big plays, so Mahomes should easily clear this line.

• RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts — anytime TD (-110 on DraftKings): All five of Taylor’s touchdowns this season have come with Anthony Richardson at quarterback, and Richardson returns to helm the Colts’ offense in Week 11.

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Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes

Key Insights were developed to help inform winning decisions, whether that’s betting a player prop or making a start/sit decision in fantasy football.

We’ve been tracking the results of logical bets associated with each insight, and in the spirit of transparency, the week-over-week results are included below.

WEEK	WINS	LOSSES	WIN %
1	8	19	30%
2	25	19	57%
3	19	28	40%
4	20	13	61%
5	16	16	50%
6	28	27	51%
7	31	20	61%
8	32	21	60%
9	44	30	59%
10	30	35	46%
TOTAL	253	228	53%

Week 10 was the first losing week for Key Insights overall since Week 3, when we switched to using 2024 data rather than a weighted blend of prior-season data. Since Week 4, our Key Insights are hitting at a 55% clip.

We’re coming off back-to-back 3-1 weeks for the four bets featured below, but you can browse through the full list of Key Insights included at the end of this article for other angles. All Key Insights can now be found on PFF’s Player Profiles for players with an associated insight.

Season-to-date record for all Key Insights: 253-228 (53%)
Key Insights record since Week 4 (3+ weeks of 2024 data): 201-162 (56%)

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: OVER 22.5 COMPLETIONS (-110 on DraftKings)

KEY INSIGHT: “Patrick Mahomes is set for high passing volume against the Bills’ defense.”

Despite being activated from injured reserve this week, running back Isiah Pacheco has been ruled out for this matchup against the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs have found some consistency in their rushing offense with Kareem Hunt but Kansas City’s hopes of remaining undefeated remain on Patrick Mahomes‘ shoulders as road underdogs.