Murray tore his ACL in November of 2022, so we knew most of his 2023 season would be lost. On top of that, we figured the Cardinals wouldn’t be very good and there wouldn’t be a reason to rush him back. But he returned in Week 10 for an eight-game season and played decently. His 2021 campaign was of an MVP caliber, with 43 big-time throws and just 14 turnover-worthy plays. But his 2022 season before injury was a massive step back. We will see which version of Murray comes out on top for the majority of 2024.

18. Geno Smith, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Smith put together back-to-back very solid seasons in 2022 and 2023. In his most recent campaign, he elevated his big-time throw rate from 5.4% to 6.0% and reduced his turnover-worthy play percentage from 4.2% to 3.5%. He missed two games due to a groin injury in 2023, so some of those cumulative numbers could have been even better.

But Smith’s two years have been a tale of four quarters. In the first half of 2022, he earned the third-highest passing grade in the league. In the second half, he led the league in turnover-worthy plays. In the first half of 2023, he had more turnover-worthy plays (13) than big-time throws (11). But from Week 10 on, he was top five in passing grade and big-time throws.

At 33 years old and entering the final year of his deal with guaranteed money, Smith may not be seen as a franchise quarterback. But he is absolutely the kind of guy who can engineer a win in any given week.

19. Caleb Williams, CHICAGO BEARS

I’m opening myself up to some criticism here, as Williams has yet to play a single down of NFL football. But I’m a draft guy, so to watch Williams at USC and scout what I think he is capable of in the NFL and rank him below guys I think he’s better than — even in 2024 — would be disingenuous.

Williams has the natural gifts to be an impactful football player in Year 1. He’ll be surrounded by some stud receivers and what is hopefully a good offensive line. The big question for him is whether all the Superman plays at USC were out of desperation or if that is his identity. If it was out of desperation and he can be comfortable playing in structure, he could be in for a big year. If he continues to play backyard football too much, 2024 might be a wild ride.

TIER 5: CAN SINGLEHANDEDLY WIN AND LOSE GAMES

20. Baker Mayfield, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Mayfield played on a one-year, “prove-it” deal in 2023, where the “prove-it” part could have spelled the end of his time as an NFL starter. It wasn’t his best season, by the numbers, but it was enough to get him a three-year extension. His last four games of the year were the catalyst.

Overall, Mayfield was erratic, with 25 big-time throws and 22 turnover-worthy plays. But over the final four games he earned a top-10 passing grade, including an elite Week 15 performance on the road in Green Bay that propelled the Buccaneers to a strong finish and a playoff berth.

21. Derek Carr, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

What you see is what you get from Derek Carr at this point. His PFF passing grade has finished between 77.5 and 83.5 in four of the past five seasons. Now, I want to be clear, he is more good than bad. His turnover-worthy play rate has never been above 3.3% over that span, and his big-time throw percentage has been as high as 6.7%. But it has long felt like Carr leaves too many plays out on the field.

In 2023, Carr passed for 25 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, but he recorded 17 big-time throws to 14 turnover-worthy plays, a much closer ratio. He remains a frustrating player to watch due to the dichotomy of what he’s capable of versus what he puts on tape.

22. Russell Wilson, PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Wilson’s past two years make it nearly impossible to evaluate who he is as a quarterback and what he is capable of. What we did see last year is that he can still hit the moonshot when it’s there. Despite ranking just 21st in PFF passing grade, he was a top-10 quarterback in total big-time throws and rate and was a top-five passer in big-time throws when pressured. And yet, his big-time throw rates in his two years with the Broncos were two of the lowest in his career.

Wilson was also one of just a handful of quarterbacks with a time-to-throw average above 3.00 seconds, a constant throughout his career, which goes into his 100 sacks taken over the past two years (most in the NFL). It’s anyone’s guess as to what version of Wilson we’ll see in Pittsburgh. But when he’s been at his best, it’s been while pushing the ball downfield.

23. Deshaun Watson, CLEVELAND BROWNS

Watson has been a disappointment since joining the Cleveland Browns. He has played in just six games in each of the past two seasons due to suspension and injury, and he is coming off season-ending surgery to his throwing shoulder.

His numbers reflect all of that.

Watson’s 58.7 cumulative PFF passing grade over the past two years ranks 53rd among qualifying passers. Still, his dominant days in a Texans uniform are not a figment of your imagination. Perhaps this is the year we see it again, though he is running out of time to prove it.

TIER 6: THE NEXT GENERATION

24. Anthony Richardson, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Richardson is supremely talented and showed flashes of top-level traits in his four games in 2023. However, he suffered both a concussion and a sprain in his rookie year, the latter requiring surgery, which ended his season prematurely.

Goal No. 1 for Richardson is a fully healthy season. Goal No. 2 is improved accuracy and timing. We know he has a howitzer of an arm and is an elite rushing threat. But he must take a big step forward in his processing in 2024. He has the supporting cast to do so.

25. Bryce Young, CAROLINA PANTHERS

Young’s rookie season was, well, about as bad as it gets. His 52.6 passing grade ranked 41st among qualifying quarterbacks, and his 27.6 passing grade under pressure was the worst in the league.

The Panthers’ situation was equally as bad as it gets, so it’s hard to put all of that on Young. He was brilliant at Alabama, but there clearly wasn’t any confidence for him in 2023 in Carolina to replicate it. His overall athletic deficiencies (size and strength) were glaring last season. More confidence and better decision-making can get Young on the right track. 2024 will be an important evaluation season for the former No. 1 pick.

26. Jacoby Brissett/Drake Maye, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Maye is the unknown as a rookie. He did have the most big-time throws in college football over the past two years, which raises the ceiling of this group. If he is the starter, you can expect some gunslinger ups and downs.

Brissett played with Washington last season and saw action in only three games, though he earned an elite passing grade in one of them. He was respectable in both Miami and Cleveland, and his consistency could very well put off the Maye Era for a short time. The floor of what Brissett can do is what puts the Patriots’ duo higher on this list.

27. Jayden Daniels, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner comes into the league as a No. 2 overall pick and the likely starter out of the gate for the Commanders. Daniels’ dual-threat abilities give him a high floor right away with how much stress he can put on a defense, bringing a constant threat of picking up yards with his legs.

Daniels’ passing will surely be a work in progress, going from LSU’s potent offense to facing NFL talent, but he and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury should be a good match.

28. Will Levis, TENNESSEE TITANS

Levis didn’t get his first NFL start until Week 8 in 2023, but from then on he was an entertaining gunslinger. He finished the season with 16 big-time throws and 14 turnover-worthy plays with only two games where he earned a passing grade above 70.0.

His mission in 2024 is simple: make more good throws than bad ones. He has the arm talent to be a good starter in this league. He just needs to know when to rip it and, perhaps more importantly, when not to.

TIER 7: THE HOLDOVERS

29. Daniel Jones, NEW YORK GIANTS

Jones was the third-ranked quarterback in PFF grade on his own team last year — behind Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito. Jones played in just six games in 2023 and was basically either elite or one of the worst-graded quarterbacks in a given week, with no in-between.

He is a good athlete whose rushing production and ability to escape the pocket have always been a big part of his game. But in four of his five years with the Giants, he has finished with more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. His average depth of target has also been low over the past three seasons.

30. Aidan O’Connell/Gardner Minshew, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Both Minshew and O’Connell started games in 2023, and they’ll now be competing for the same job in 2024. Their passing grades were close, with O’Connell recording a 64.6 and Minshew posting a 60.6. Those were good for 29th and 33rd, respectively, versus the rest of the league.

O’Connell was the more efficient of the two, with a higher big-time throw rate, higher adjusted completion percentage and lower turnover-worthy play rate. Regardless of who wins the starting job for Week 1, neither is a big needle-mover right now.

31. Sam Darnold/J.J. McCarthy, MINNESOTA VIKINGS

I don’t think McCarthy will be the starting quarterback right out of the gate, but a combination of Darnold and McCarthy for the 2024 season seems likely. Darnold has never finished a season with a passing grade above 67.0, but his past two were his highest. I am surprisingly excited to see Darnold get a shot as a starter this year, as he finished his final year in Carolina with a 6.7% big-time throw rate and a 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate in six games as a starter.

32. Jarrett Stidham/Bo Nix, DENVER BRONCOS

Nix, after being selected No. 12 overall, will be the Broncos’ starter at some point, but that point might not be immediate.

Stidham just hasn’t been good to this point in his NFL career. He has one season where he earned a passing grade above 56.0, and his NFL resume includes just two big-time throws to eight turnover-worthy plays. Nix’s experience and efficiency at Oregon could help him break through quickly, though his adjustment from the Ducks’ offense to NFL situations could be a challenge.