On the heels of a successful 2024 U.S. Open, American men also excelled at the 2025 Australian Open–where they put one in the semifinals (Ben Shelton), one more in the quarters (Tommy Paul), and two others in the fourth round (Alex Michelsen and Learner Tien).

With American tennis clearly on the rise (and let’s not forget the women, with Aussie Open champion Madison Keys giving them four in the top 10!), Ricky is joined by Ben Rothenberg of Bounces for a deep dive into how the U.S. men’s contingent could fare in 2025…and beyond!

Who will be the top-ranked American man at the end of 2025? 

Ben

Taylor Fritz: Simply put, I’ve been burned too many times in recent years by underestimating Fritz to make that mistake again. Even with a non-spectacular Australian Open, he’s still the guy in my mind – and his non-disastrous loss to an in-form Gael Monfils is offset by his strong showing at the United Cup. If he stays healthy, he’s the guy. Or it will take something truly special for someone to pass him if he maintains his current altitude.

Ricky

Taylor Fritz: Grand Slams were once Fritz’s Waterloo; now he’s an incredibly consistent force at the most important tournaments in the world. That alone should help him maintain the top spot at least for one more year. He currently has a big lead at world No. 4 and if he keeps it through the summer it gives him a massive advantage with favorable draws at all of the slams and Masters 1000s.

What will be the order of the top five American men? 

Ben

1. Taylor Fritz
2. Ben Shelton 
3. Tommy Paul
4. Sebastian Korda
5. Brandon Nakashima

Alex Michelsen and Frances Tiafoe won’t be far behind here.

Ricky

1. Taylor Fritz
2. Tommy Paul
3. Ben Shelton
4. Alex Michelsen
5. Sebastian Korda

I have no faith in Korda staying healthy, but he will be top 5 if he does. If he misses more than a couple months again, I would replace him with Nakashima.

What active American man will have the highest career-high ranking? 

Ben

Taylor Fritz: Fritz currently sets this bar at a pretty lofty No. 4, and that’s high enough that I will play it safe and stick with him. What are the ceilings for the young guys? Tough to say, but Fritz could plausibly creep up to the top 3 this year with a dip from Carlos Alcaraz or Alexander Zverev (or a long ban for Jannik Sinner).

Ricky

Ben Shelton: Fritz has an outside chance to reach No. 3 at some point, but in all likelihood No. 4 will be his peak. Shelton will get to No. 3 at the very least in my opinion. I have him as a future slam champion, and that by itself usually is enough for a top-3 spot. With that serve and forehand, Shelton’s ceiling is simply higher than everyone else’s.

Who will have a “better” career (based however you want to define “better”): Alex Michelsen or Learner Tien? 

Ben

Alex Michelsen: Gosh do I love this question. I’m going to do the thing that Learner Tien seems to thrive on most, which is underestimating him. I feel like I have a better handle on Michelsen’s trajectory – which looks at least top 20 bound – than I do on Tien’s. But, my gosh, I hope Tien can do big things. I think he’s like the closest thing the ATP has had to a Martina Hingis-type in a long time, and I love watching him unravel opponents.

Ricky

Learner Tien: I’m high on both, but I’ll lean slightly toward Tien. I just think the variety and general leftyness of his game will befuddle opponents throughout his career. The margins in Michelsen’s game are much smaller, so he will be less consistent.

Over/Under 

Americans in the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals – 1.5 

Ben: Over. Currently two in there in the 2025 Race, and five in the top 15! And seven in the top 25!

Ricky: Over. I had Fritz and Paul in there in my preseason picks, plus Shelton as an alternate. There’s certainly no reason to waver now!

American men in another Grand Slam singles semifinal this season – 1.5 

Ben: Over. Fritz is a threat at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. Tiafoe is a U.S. Open specialist. Shelton should come into his own on grass any year now, and he’s also been great in New York. And then Paul, Korda, and Nakashima surely aren’t completely out of the race.

Ricky: Under. The French Open is most likely a no go (except maybe Fritz), and I think the odds of getting two at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open combined just aren’t in their favor. Fritz and Tiafoe did it in New York last summer, but will lightning strike twice? Probably not.

Active American men who will win a Grand Slam singles title – 1.5 

Ben: Over. I left Australia feeling increasingly bullish on Shelton, so he does the most of the lifting here. And then, yeah, I just expect riches to be spread around more in this era (I say as Alcaraz and Sinner hoarded the last five Grand Slams between them!).

Ricky: Over. There is no doubt in my mind about Shelton. That means we have a decade or so to get one more from the current crop. It’s such a big, talented crop that you have to think one will be there. And as Ben said, as good as Alcaraz and Sinner are, this isn’t going to be an era of Big 3-esque dominance.

Learner Tien 2025 year-end ranking – Better/worse than 50.5 

Ben: Better. I mean, he is 15th in the race, I think he’ll get there. The bigger question for me is where Tien lands at the end of 2026, actually. With his unique game, he seems like a candidate for a sophomore slump if players and coaches on tour figure out a way to crack his code.

Ricky: Better. Up 41 spots to No. 80 thanks to his AO run, Tien will get into all of the slams and even many of the Masters 1000s. His game should work fantastically well on every surface except clay (outdoors, indoors, grass), so points will come from many directions. And opponents hate playing lefties–especially ones they aren’t familiar with!

Alex Michelsen 2025 year-end ranking – Better/worse than 22.5 

Ben: Worse. I realized as I was contemplating this question that I’ve only ever watched Michelsen on hard courts, as far as I can recall, with the exception maybe of last year’s Newport final. And he just doesn’t have enough of a track record on the other surfaces to make me think he’s ready to have a well-rounded enough season to be close to the Top 20 yet. I mean, he was 11-15 on clay + grass last season, and two of those wins came against Max Hans Rehberg.

Ricky: Better. Michelsen’s backhand is already world class. His serve isn’t far behind. Even his forehand was cooking in Australia, where he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov in matches that weren’t even really that close. I can see the California kid having a big Indian Wells in March and then a huge American hard-court summer.

Ben Shelton year-end ranking – 10.5 / and career-high ranking – 3.5 

Ben: Better on year-end, worse on career-high.

To make space in the top 10 for Shelton, you have to figure out who will drop. I’m willing to sell stock in two of the guys ahead of him currently, Andrey Rublev and Grigor Dimitrov. And then who knows how full of a schedule Novak Djokovic might play? Shelton will have a better year, I think, than Alex de Minaur. And how on earth is Casper Ruud currently in the top 5? I could see Shelton, currently No. 13, passing enough of those guys to get safely into the top 10 with a couple more gaudy results on hard or grass.
Top 3 overall is tricky. Will he ever outperform Sinner and Alcaraz long term? If no, then he’d have to beat everyone else on tour – and I’m just not sure. So often rankings come down to Ruud-ish reliability, and I haven’t seen that from Shelton yet in his career.

Ricky: Better on year-end, better on career-high.

As mentioned above, I have him as a Nitto ATP Finals alternate (no worse than 10th) and with a career-high ranking of at least No. 3. Shelton is the absolute real deal. He already has the physical tools of a top-10 player and in time an improvement in both consistency (mainly with the backhand) and general point construction will have him in the top 3.

Subscribe to read all of Ben’s work at Bounces, where you can find more content on the American men with his Australian Open LAMP article.