The New England Patriots have overtaken the New York Giants in The Athletic’s projection for the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, potentially giving New England the franchise’s first No. 1 pick since 1993.

The Giants’ shocking win in Week 17 against the Indianapolis Colts provided the second major shake-up to the top-pick order in as many weeks, with the first new No. 1 since this series began.

The New York Giants led the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft since The Athletic began tracking the projections in Week 14. A 10-game losing streak placed the Giants in prime position to have their pick of a quarterback in April’s draft.

Last week’s Raiders win made New York the lone two-win team in the league. One week later, and the Giants have slipped down the draft rankings to their lowest point in weeks.

The field has narrowed even further with Week 18 just a week away.

Four teams will enter Week 18 with a 3-13 record. New England rises to the top by virtue of the league’s tiebreaker system — strength of schedule. Order within ties is decided by the combined records of a team’s 17 opponents throughout the year. New England is the only three-win team with a current strength of schedule below .500 (.465), according to Tankathon. If all four teams were to somehow win next week, New England’s strength of schedule is currently lower than all other four-win teams (beating out next-worst Jacksonville by 0.3 percent).

New England Patriots — 53 percent

New England shifted atop the rankings with a 40-7 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers — the franchise’s fourth-worst loss by point differential since owner Robert Kraft purchased the team in 1994. The Patriots already have their quarterback of the future in Drake Maye, so putting New England on the clock would make it a prime candidate for a trade or the inevitable landing spot for wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter, the 2024 Heisman Trophy winner. However, the Patriots will face the Buffalo Bills, who will likely rest their starters until the postseason after clinching the AFC’s No. 2 seed. New England’s odds fell noticeably with the loss by Cleveland, down from 67 percent after the early slate. If Mitchell Trubisky and company have enough to give New England its seventh straight loss, though, the Patriots will have certainly earned the top spot.

Week 18 opponent: Home vs. Bills

Tennessee Titans — 26 percent

By losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, the Titans maintained their spot in the running for the top pick. Regardless of where they end up, it’s a massive boon for a team with needs across the roster. The Titans could move on from Will Levis, marking their highest selection of a quarterback in the draft since Marcus Mariota in 2015. They could bring in offensive help for a team that ranks 31st in offensive DVOA, or draft Hunter to bolster  bottom-three offense and a 20th-ranked pass defense by DVOA. Tennessee’s strength of schedule gives it a good shot at the top pick should New England win next week. However, the Titans will face the Houston Texans, who are set as the fourth seed in the AFC.

Week 18 opponent: Home vs. Texans

Cleveland Browns — 18 percent

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The Browns may have lucked into one of the best possible scenarios for their roster predicament. Cleveland will enter the 2025 season just over $17 million above the estimated cap, per Over the Cap. This comes after the Browns agreed to a contract restructure for Deshaun Watson’s massive fully guaranteed deal. Now, Cleveland could find a way to bail itself out of the Watson contract while still maintaining a playoff-caliber roster by selecting a first-round quarterback. A 3-13 Cleveland’s strength of schedule places it just above the quarterback-desperate Giants in the tiebreaker. Could the injury-riddled Browns save the franchise from itself?

Week 18 opponent: at Baltimore Ravens

New York Giants — 3 percent

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Giants crush Colts’ playoff hopes with 45-33 win: Takeaways

After sitting at 63 percent odds in Week 16, the Giants have endured the single-largest drop since we began tracking odds. New York’s shot at the top spot has all but evaporated. It still has a chance, but it will need a lot of help. New York’s opponents have a 53.7 percent win rate, giving the Giants the highest strength of schedule among the potential three-win teams. That means it would take another Giants loss and wins from the Patriots, Titans and Browns for New York to re-secure the top pick. It’s a long shot, but not impossible.

Week 18 opponent: at Philadelphia Eagles

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(Photo: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)