Top Red-Zone Offense: San Francisco 49ers

EPA per play in red zone: (0.30)

Unsurprisingly, the San Francisco 49ers were the runaway leaders in red-zone offense in 2023. Kyle Shanahan’s group was one of the most efficient offenses in the league with Jimmy Garoppolo under center, but Brock Purdy‘s emergence and Shanahan’s added creativity have propelled the unit to another level. His 87.4 PFF overall grade ranked sixth among quarterbacks in 2023, and the 49ers led the NFL in EPA per play on offense (0.168) by a wide margin.

That led to San Francisco comfortably leading the league in red-zone EPA. Christian McCaffrey greatly enhanced their success there, as the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year rushed for 13 touchdowns and forced 0.21 missed tackles per attempt while earning a 67.3 PFF grade in the red zone.

It was the red-zone passing attack that stuck out, though. The 49ers paced the league in red-zone passing EPA per play (0.46) by a considerable distance, with the Buffalo Bills clocking in second (0.36). The sheer number of weapons in the passing game, paired with McCaffrey’s rushing ability and Shanahan’s play calling, meant that the 49ers were a force in every facet of offense.

Offense that could regress: New England Patriots

EPA per play in red zone (0.16)

Despite being the second-worst offense in the NFL in EPA per play in 2023 (-0.223), the New England Patriots fielded a top-10 red-zone offense in EPA per play. The Patriots scored just 13.9 points per game, tied for the fewest in the NFL in 2023, and went through multiple quarterback changes throughout the season. However, something clicked for New England when the offense entered the red zone.

Even more surprisingly, it was the passing game that clicked the most. The Patriots ranked fifth in EPA per passing play in the red zone (0.27), with Mac Jones recording nine passing touchdowns against just one interception.

Expect the Patriots’ red-zone performance to fall by the wayside in 2024. Another quarterback change, with either Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett starting under center, as well as a real lack of offensive weapons and a consistent offensive line, means New England’s attack will likely struggle as a whole this season. They may be better with Maye in the long run, but there will be early growing pains.

Best red-zone defenses by EPA per play in 2023

Top Red-Zone Defense: Baltimore Ravens

EPA per play allowed in red zone: 0.14

The Baltimore Ravens‘ defense was far and away one of the elites in the NFL last season. Mike Macdonald’s unit was second to only the Cleveland Browns in EPA per play allowed in 2023 and surrendered only 16.7 points per game — the fewest in the NFL.

The Ravens’ defense did an excellent job of defending the pass in the condensed spaces. The secondary, led by Kyle Hamilton, performed particularly well and the defense allowed the lowest EPA per passing play in the red zone. At the same time, Hamilton’s 86.4 PFF overall grade ranked sixth among safeties as he catapulted himself into an All-Pro nod.

Hamilton wasn’t the only outstanding contributor. Seven other Ravens earned grades of 70.0 or higher, with linebacker Roquan Smith also earning an All-Pro spot. It’s easy to see why the Ravens fielded the best red-zone defense in the NFL when there were so many excellent players contributing in the run and pass games.

Defense that could regress: Atlanta Falcons

EPA per play allowed in red zone: 0.03

The Falcons’ defense was above average, if unremarkable, in 2023. They were a top-half unit in EPA per play (12th) but upped their game even more in the red zone, becoming a top-10 unit. It was in run defense where they really stuck out, allowing -0.153 EPA per rushing play, the second-lowest figure in the NFL, behind the Buccaneers.

The defensive interior partnership of Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata is as imposing as they come, and Zach Harrison adds a nice boost in depth, but regression from the Falcons’ defense feels inevitable. There’s still a discerning lack of outside pass rush and, despite having a talented secondary, Atlanta ranked 15th in EPA allowed per pass play in the red zone in 2023.

The lack of a pass rush could hurt the Falcons in 2024. The run defense is probably still going to hold up well, but regression is likely. Year-to-year consistency on defense is hard to come by, and the Falcons’ defense already exceeded expectations in 2023.