At 10 a.m. Eastern time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its so-called benchmark revisions on U.S. employment data from April 2023 to March 2024. Wall Street predicts a big markdown in employment gains during that span. Estimates range from a reduction of 600,000 jobs to a record 1 million.
Analysts warn that the exercise might attract outsized attention given that investors are now hyperfocused on labor-market data, as evidenced by the sharp selloff that followed the July jobs report on Aug. 2 or the bounce that followed as subsequent weekly jobless claims releases helped ease concerns about the state of the labor market.
The 12-month average for job additions over the revision period was 241,000 — a “very strong” figure that implies a solid labor market, noted Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. A downward revision of 600,000 would drop the average payrolls gain to 191,000, while a downward revision of 1 million would make what’s been strong jobs data “more middling,” he wrote.
“This matters because the market is very sensitive to soft labor market data and we know that from the recent pop in jobless claims and July jobs report. So, while investors are ok ignoring most disappointing data, they aren’t ignoring soft labor market data and if these revisions are worse than expected, look for it to weigh on stocks today,” Essaye said.
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