Week 13 is in the books. With five weeks left in the 2024 NFL season, the AFC playoff picture is nearly crystalline. With the Broncos’ victory in a thrilling “Monday Night Football” game against the Browns, seven AFC teams have a playoff likelihood over 75%, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections. The NFC is not so clear, as divisional races continue in the West and South. But at least we know what conference to pay attention to in December.

Every Tuesday, I’ll spin the previous week of NFL football forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We’ll take a first look at the consequences of “Monday Night Football,” break down a major trend or two and highlight some key individual players and plays. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.

This week, we close the door on the 49ers’ season — and maybe their Super Bowl window — and look at what went wrong. Plus, we give some well-deserved credit to Arthur Smith for the Steelers’ offensive breakout and restack our updated All-Film Team roster after 13 weeks. Let’s jump in.

Jump to a section:
The Big Thing: What happened to the 49ers?
Updating our All-Film Team list
Second Take: Arthur Smith fixed the PIT offense
Mailbag: Answering questions from … you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 13 stats
“Monday Night Football” spin

The Big Thing: Goodnight, 49ers

Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season?

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-7. The season isn’t over — they have an 8.5% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index projections — but it sure feels that way. They’ve lost three straight games, all to potential playoff teams (Seattle, Green Bay and Buffalo).

It’s more than the season being over, though. It feels as if it’s all over. It feels as if the league has figured out Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which is only producing 0.04 EPA per play, the worst figure for the 49ers since 2018. It feels as if the defense, which was once a towering unit, has lost too much talent and run out of good ideas. It is giving up 0.03 EPA per play, which is — you guessed it — the worst number for a 49ers defense since 2018.

Some context to those numbers: This is the worst 49ers season in a while — but only barely. Though the team has certainly taken a step back from last season’s Super Bowl-caliber roster, it’s not as if the floor has fallen out of the franchise. The team has just gone from near-elite to simply solid.

But because the 49ers are 5-7, the sky feels as if it’s falling. And if it hasn’t been the big things — the overall success of the offense or defense — then it has been the little things. The 49ers were plus-10 in turnover differential last season and plus-13 the year before that; this season, they’re minus-3. Their red zone touchdown rate was 67.2% last season (best in the NFL), but it is 48.9% this season. These little failures split the hairs between a still-respectable-though-definitely-worse 7-5 team and a 5-7 likely-to-miss-the-postseason club.

The current reality of the 49ers isn’t that bleak, even if they miss the playoffs. It’s when you spin things forward that it gets scary.

Star running back Christian McCaffrey, whose midseason acquisition in 2022 initiated the best offense Shanahan ever produced, is injured again. He strained his PCL in the snow on Buffalo’s field on Sunday night, only four games after returning from his double Achilles tendinitis, and is now on injured reserve. McCaffrey is 28 years old and rapidly approaching the age cliff for running backs, who typically start to fall off when they hit 30. He’s also coming off a 411-touch season that spanned 19 regular-season and postseason games. All of those hits wear on a running back.

Hits also wear on quasi-running backs such as versatile receiver Deebo Samuel Sr., whose unique role in the 49ers’ offense is predicated on elite tackle-breaking ability. Samuel, who is also 28, is slowing down. His average speed this season of 14.51 mph is the second-lowest of his six seasons in the league; he has reached over 15 mph on fewer than half of his plays this season, which had happened only before. The league’s greatest YAC threat, Samuel is producing fewer yards after the catch per reception this season (7.9) than any other year of his career.

Of course, he has needed to take on a larger role in the offense given the absence of Brandon Aiyuk, who tore his ACL and MCL early in the season. Aiyuk has been quarterback Brock Purdy‘s best target over Purdy’s time as a starter, and now the 49ers have to wonder how well he’ll return from a major knee injury.

Offensive tackle Trent Williams, who has not played a full season since 2013, has sat out two weeks because of an ankle injury that “hasn’t been healing the way [the team] hoped,” in the words of Shanahan. That’s a concerning diagnosis for anyone but especially for a 36-year-old tackle with a history of ankle problems.

The injuries to star players throw into relief issues that have been festering in San Francisco for seasons, as the 49ers have squeezed as much juice out of this winning window as possible. The defensive line was once an unparalleled two-deep collection of playmakers, but it has seen a ton of talent cash in elsewhere, including DeForest Buckner, D.J. Jones, Samson Ebukam, Arden Key and Charles Omenihu. This year’s round of veteran plugs — Maliek Collins, Jordan Elliott, Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos — haven’t lifted the defense the same way previous iterations did, especially with big-money defensive tackle Javon Hargrave lost for the season to a right triceps injury.

Hargrave’s absence (and that of linebacker Dre Greenlaw, who popped his Achilles in last season’s Super Bowl) explains some but not all of the 49ers’ defensive struggles this season. The run defense was already starting to tail off late last season, when Hargrave and Greenlaw were both available. The poor depth along the line and commitment to Quarters shells (two-high defense) were starting to catch up to the team.

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— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) December 3, 2024

The same is true of the opposite trenches, where the 49ers were struggling for consistent pass protection at a few spots (such as center Jake Brendel and right tackle Colton McKivitz). But it had never mattered, because Purdy could escape pressure and the pass catchers were so deep, diverse and dangerous that the pressure rarely mattered. This season, Purdy is holding onto the ball longer as the Aiyuk-less, McCaffrey-less pass-catching crew has failed to generate as much easy separation. And now, the pressure starts to matter a great deal. You could even argue that with the addition of rookie guard Dominick Puni and some improved play from McKivitz, that the line play is better this season (but it still isn’t good, and the 49ers can’t hide it as easily).

Just as talent drain has affected the depth of the roster as wallets grow tighter, so too has a brain drain affected the coaching staff’s ability to find solutions. Shanahan remains the offensive playcaller, but for four consecutive seasons, one of his key assistants has been poached. Mike LaFleur left for the Jets after the 2020 season, Mike McDaniel went to the Dolphins after 2021, Bobby Slowik joined the Texans after 2022 and Klint Kubiak was hired by the Saints after 2023. Jon Embree, Shanahan’s assistant head coach for five seasons, left with McDaniel for the Dolphins in 2022, too. Even if the mastermind remains, those losses add up.

Much of the same has happened on the defensive side of the ball, where top-flight defensive coordinator Robert Saleh (Jets) and his prodigious heir DeMeco Ryans (Texans) have both left for head-coaching jobs in the past four years. The 49ers reached out to a new defensive mind in Steve Wilks last season, seeking fresh ideas; just one season later, they swung back to a homegrown talent in Nick Sorensen.

Because so much has happened to the 49ers — injuries, coaching departures, players aging, young players failing to step up — everyone has an opinion of what has gone wrong in San Francisco. Shanahan doesn’t have the goods anymore. GM John Lynch took the wrong risks in personnel. They don’t know how to hire a good defensive coordinator. Purdy is actually bad. The offensive line is actually bad. The defensive line is actually bad. The kicking game is actually bad. They got unlucky with injuries.

All of these things are arguably true, but not one of them is the true culprit. Not one of them is why the 49ers haven’t been good this season and why they probably won’t be good for a while. The real villain is the same one that robs us of every super team and every spectacular player: the passage of time.

This is the NFL. That stands for National Football League, but it also stands for Not For Long. The great lie spun by the dominance of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick was the idea that elite teams can stay elite; that once you reach the pinnacle, all you have to do is defend it. It’s the same lie that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are telling us now. But those dynastic successes are the exception, not the rule. The cold hard reality of the NFL was the one Lions coach Dan Campbell told his team when they lost to these very 49ers in the NFC Championship Game in January: “It’s going to be twice as hard to get back to this point next year.”

He was talking to his team, but he was also talking to the 49ers, because his message transcends any individual team. In the NFL, you can run everyone back and do all the same stuff that worked last year and experience totally different results. That’s how thin the margins are in this league.

While battling those thin margins, time begins to weigh on each team. The finely tuned instruments on offense accumulate rust. The battering rams on defense crack and splinter. Schematic innovations that were once unprecedented become the focal point of defensive counterpunches. When you have an edge, you have to capitalize, because edges cut and cut and cut until they dull.

The 49ers had edges and didn’t capitalize. They made four conference championship games and two Super Bowls in five years, but there isn’t a Lombardi Trophy in the case to show for it. Jimmy Garoppolo missed Emmanuel Sanders down the field. Darrell Luter Jr. muffed a punt. Those are the margins, and the 49ers missed on them. And I mean, just barely missed.

So they ran it back with their star talent, extending McCaffrey, Aiyuk and Williams. They poured veteran contracts into the gaps on the roster. One more year, one more chance, one more swing while Purdy was still cheap, Samuel was still good, McCaffrey was still dominant and Williams could still play.

But time won, as it always does. There is exactly one way to reliably print Super Bowl appearances, year over year, and it is this: having the best quarterback in the NFL. The 49ers do not, so despite all of their other excellence, their run had an expiration date. We didn’t know exactly when it would hit, but it was inevitable, and it has arrived.

The book isn’t closed on Shanahan, Lynch and Purdy. No huge sweeping changes must be made. But this chapter is finished, and a roster reload is inevitable. Some of the key players will still be key players down the road, including Aiyuk, Fred Warner and Deommodore Lenoir. But the 49ers have to get younger and better at multiple positions — wide receiver, offensive line, linebacker, defensive tackle, running back and tight end — over the next offseason or two to build a new contender around Purdy. Perhaps they’ll even let Purdy’s deal expire and go the route Shanahan and Lynch favored in 2021, when they chased a losing season by trading up in the 2021 draft to select a potential game-breaking quarterback in Trey Lance. (Swing and a miss there, but that doesn’t mean the idea isn’t sound.)

Though the 49ers’ faithful will rightfully lament a lost season, I am actually very enthusiastic about rebuilding a team under Lynch and Shanahan. This duo has been together for a long time and understand each other, which is a recipe for team success. Shanahan has shown an ability to maximize non-premium picks across the board on offense, including at the QB position, where he has dramatically raised the ceiling of both Garoppolo and Purdy. Lynch has consistently drafted solid defenders in all rounds and generally makes good trades when maximizing the winning window.

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Schefter: CMC, Jordan Mason headed to IR

Adam Schefter details who will lead the 49ers’ backfield after injuries to Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason.

It’s reasonable to be frustrated with what has happened to the 49ers under their watch, but the body of work in San Francisco remains very, very good. It won’t be a perfect rebuild — ups and downs are inevitable — but I trust the brass.

The 49ers had their day in the sun. It was longer and better than most teams get. But that day is done. It’s nobody’s fault. It’s just what happens in the NFL.

All-Film Team: Post-Week 13 acknowledgements

Once in a while, I’ll update my All-Film List — or, as it’s better known, my list of “players who won’t get season-long awards or All-Pro nods or anything but are still good.” This is a list without qualification. Rookies can make it, veterans can make it and guys you’ve never heard of can definitely make it. It’s meant to catch those players who might not be popping on counting stats or playing key positions on contending teams … but are popping on the film.

Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans: There’s a chance I’m falling for the same thing that got me hyped about Levis last offseason. But man, he makes four or five high-difficulty throws per game that make me feel as if there’s something worth developing there. The turnovers have decreased, too. Will he get a second season as the unquestioned starter in Tennessee? That depends on how December goes, but it’s in the cards.

Sincere McCormick, RB, Las Vegas Raiders: Injuries have created opportunity for McCormick, who is undersized but tough, quick and physical. He’s the best ball carrier I’ve seen in Las Vegas this season and deserves a role in the backfield the rest of the way.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks: Those couple of games without DK Metcalf seemed to have unlocked the downfield component long lacking from Smith-Njigba’s game. The chemistry between Geno Smith and JSN in scramble drills is also very noteworthy. At 70 catches and 829 yards, he feels like a WR1 emergent.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns: I wasn’t the biggest fan of Jeudy when he was coming out of Alabama, as I like my route runners with a little less flash and a little more urgency. But in a high-volume role in Cleveland, Jeudy has reliably produced downfield separation and big plays. The lightbulb might officially be on. He just went for 235 yards against the Broncos.

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Jerry Jeudy taunts defender on 70-yard house call

Jameis Winston finds Jerry Jeudy wide open for a 70-yard touchdown and he lets his defender know it on his celebration.

Tim Patrick, WR, Detroit Lions: Patrick isn’t going to have a 100-yard game or 10-catch performance anytime this season, but he sure has been handy for the Lions as their WR3. He makes big grabs over the middle of the field and blocks his tail off in the running game — exactly what Detroit needs in that role.

AJ Barner, TE, Seattle Seahawks: A fourth-round rookie who was initially buried on the Seattle depth chart, Barner has flashed all season and especially impressed in Noah Fant‘s absence during November. He plays big, loose and with high effort. His game is raw right now, but he’s one to watch going forward.

Ikem Ekwonu, OT, Carolina Panthers: I’ve been critical of Ekwonu for much of his NFL career, as he has been as big of a disappointment as any early first-round pick. But he deserves his flowers here, as his past two months have easily been his best performance of his career. He’s far from perfect, but the arrow is pointing up.

Bernhard Raimann, OT, Indianapolis Colts: I have always thought Raimann is a pretty good pro, having developed nicely over the past few seasons into a franchise left tackle. Then I saw the Colts have to play without him, and I realized Raimann is really, really good. He’s not an A-plus in any one trait or skill, but he’s solid across the board, and that matters for a blindside protector.

O’Cyrus Torrence, G, Buffalo Bills: A second-year pro, Torrence is so often the road-grader in the Bills’ excellent between-the-tackles rushing attack. His rookie year was fine, but he was occasionally shaky in pass protection. This season, he’s clean as a whistle. I see a future Pro Bowl player.

Quinn Meinerz, G, Denver Broncos: Meinerz was rightfully extended this offseason and deserves mention with the 10 best guards in the NFL — yet the initial Pro Bowl voting came out this week, and his name is nowhere to be seen on the list of guards. Few guards are more feared at the second level and in space. Meinerz is a huge part of the Broncos’ successful and diverse screen game.

Garrett Bradbury, C, Minnesota Vikings: The book on Bradbury is known. He’s a great athlete, but the lack of size can spell trouble in pass protection. In games like Sunday’s matchup against the Cardinals, I was reminded of another huge Bradbury strength: his command at the line of scrimmage. He has helped Sam Darnold out a ton in the QB’s first year in the Minnesota system.

Nolan Smith Jr., Edge, Philadelphia Eagles: Smith really struggled to get on the field as a rookie given his lack of NFL size, but in his second season, he’s starting to figure out the ropes as a sub-240-pounder. I admire the way Smith will give his all for his run defense responsibility even when he’s giving up 100 pounds to a pulling guard, but it’s that quick first step that’s really making waves in the pass rush (4.5 sacks).

Chop Robinson, Edge, Miami Dolphins: I wrote about Robinson last week, but I won’t rob him of a deserving spot on the All-Film Team just because I’ve got nothing else new to say. When you can get off the ball as fast as Robinson does, you will always have a place in this league.

Milton Williams, DT, Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Carter gets the deserved hype as one of the best defensive tackles in the game, but Williams — in a contract year — has been a force. His ability to play every gap from tackle to tackle allows the Eagles to stunt and twist in the running game, and he’s a great upfield penetration player. If your team is in the market for a defensive tackle this offseason, do yourself a favor and watch Williams.

T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Tennessee Titans: As always, I try to avoid rookies on this list, but you can’t watch Titans film and not notice Sweat. This is the biggest man in the world (6-foot-4, 362 pounds), and yet he somehow wins with agility multiple times per game. I can’t believe what I’m seeing.

Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Green Bay Packers: The Packers have been desperate for good linebacker play for a while now, and though Quay Walker has had a flash or two in recent weeks, the best play has come from Cooper, who is fast, long and seeing it well between the tackles. He looks like the future full-time mike linebacker the Packers need.

Daiyan Henley, LB, Los Angeles Chargers: Most of the time, undersized linebackers who thrive against spread offenses in college flounder in the NFL. Henley is making it work, having won the starting role in Los Angeles over the early weeks of the season. He has long arms for his frame, and it shows up in his block deconstruction and zone coverage.

Rasul Douglas, CB, Buffalo Bills: I will die for a corner who will step into a run play and make a physical tackle at the line of scrimmage. I will also die for a corner who takes risks in zone coverage and has legit ball skills at the point of attack. As such, I will die for Douglas twice over.

Christian Gonzalez, CB, New England Patriots: I think Gonzalez has been the second-best corner in the NFL this season behind only Pat Surtain II and should be an All-Pro. If you made me choose one corner with whom to start a team between Gonzalez, Derek Stingley Jr. and Sauce Gardner, I really think I’d take Gonzo. He’s amazing.

Devon Witherspoon, NCB, Seattle Seahawks: Witherspoon might be the best-known name on this list, but he is exactly what I want in my nickel cornerback, so he gets the nod. He has been on an absolute tear of impact plays at the line of scrimmage — critical for any slot defender — and remains a top cover man.

Budda Baker, S, Arizona Cardinals: Baker is playing as if he’s 24 again. He’s only 28, but still, there isn’t a Cardinals game I watch in which I’m not astounded by some moment of acceleration from Baker. Few safeties, if any, can affect the game as close to the line of scrimmage as Baker does, both as a run fitter and as a blitzer.

Taylor Rapp, S, Buffalo Bills: He isn’t prime Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde, but Rapp has been a strong tackler and reliable cover man for the Bills all season. He has just enough instincts and speed to get away with playing single-high when the Bills needed it, but as a deep-half defender, he has really been shining.

Second Take: Time to credit Arthur Smith

ESPN’s “First Take” is known for, well, providing the first take on things — the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather the spot where I’ll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.

The NFL head coaching cycle is coming up, and I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the crop of exciting young offensive minds is pretty underwhelming. Beside Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — who is still a rock star — we have Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen and potentially Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. Maybe Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak? Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing? It isn’t a deep group.

But I have another hat to throw into the ring: Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith.

I think Smith is a good offensive mind. In fact, I’m pretty certain of it. In his two seasons at the helm of the Titans’ offense, Tennessee was seventh and second by EPA per play. That was with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, who also happens to be the best QB Smith has ever coached. His three seasons in Atlanta were far from electrifying on offense, but he coached the shell of Matt Ryan, Desmond Ridder and Marcus Mariota. And in 2022, with Mariota and Ridder under center, his Falcons offense was still 11th in EPA per play.

This season, the Steelers are 16th in the NFL in EPA per play with Justin Fields and Russell Wilson at quarterback — players who Pittsburgh acquired for a sixth-round pick and a veteran minimum contract. When Fields was under center, we saw him play some of the best football of his career; he avoided turnovers and sacks in a manner he never achieved in Chicago. And Wilson has played better in Pittsburgh than he ever did in Denver or even at the end of his Seattle era.

Look at the rest of the Steelers’ roster, too. The offensive line has dealt with multiple injury shuffles and the pass-catching room apart from George Pickens is extremely weak. Yet the Steelers walked down the field on the Bengals’ defense Sunday as if it wasn’t even there. From 2020 to 2023, the Steelers’ offense totaled more than 400 yards in exactly two games; in 2024, the offense has already done it four times.

I don’t want to wave away Smith’s struggles in Atlanta. His offense is schematically awesome, but he struggled to get his star players a reliable number of touches, and that’s a nonnegotiable in the modern NFL. If you have Kyle Pitts, you have to figure out how to use him. Smith also had a hand in managing his quarterback position, and he elected to spend his time on Ridder, Mariota and Taylor Heinicke — that was a misstep. He struggled with the media, too, and had an unnecessarily confrontational relationship with reporters at times; could that ever play in somewhere like New York? Smith will have to answer for the Atlanta tenure if and when he gets head-coaching interviews, be it this offseason or some other offseason down the road.

But teams should want to bring him in for those interviews and hear those answers. Has even just the one year with Mike Tomlin taught him how to be brusque without being pugnacious? Has this Pickens season signaled a change of heart in funneling the ball to stars? And considering his offense has changed from Tennessee to Atlanta to Pittsburgh to account for different QB play, how would he build around a guy such as Caleb Williams? Or Trevor Lawrence? Either would easily be the best quarterback Smith has ever coached.

I know the public generally doesn’t praise Smith, but you can’t get 414 passing yards out of Wilson and not recapture my attention. Were Smith a first-time playcaller and 10 years younger, wouldn’t the entire media landscape be pushing the young genius making Wilson viable again?

For now, I’m happy to call Smith the veteran playcaller who Tomlin and the Steelers have long needed. I have no interest in racing anyone up to the head-coaching market, and Smith should have no interest in sprinting there, either. He has already experienced what it’s like to join a franchise in transition and should make sure his next landing spot is a softer one than Atlanta was in 2021. But in all the hype on Wilson’s resurgence, I’ve seen little credit doled out to Smith, who remains one of the best offensive minds in football. That caliber of coach doesn’t stay an offensive coordinator for very long.

From y’all

The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email (benjamin.solak@espn.com) anytime — but especially on Monday each week — to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.

From Sheepstealer: “How many games do the Ravens have to lose before we doubt their ability to win the whole thing. I understand they are very good in DVOA and PFF grades, but I question their ability to win four straight games come the playoffs. They have the talent to be the best team in the NFL but not the consistency.”

I am always suspicious of takes like this one, and it boils down to how the NFL playoffs are constructed. The league doesn’t play best-of-seven series the way we see in other professional sports, which theoretically remove some variance and ensure that the better team wins. We can’t do it; football is too physical and players can’t recover fast enough. Instead, it’s best-of-one, and that introduces a lot of variance. Just ask the 2021 Bengals.

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Why Stephen A. is critical of the Ravens after losing to the Eagles

Stephen A. Smith explains why the Ravens’ loss to the Eagles is telling for their chances as a Super Bowl contender.

Accordingly, the list of teams that can make the Super Bowl is a list of teams that can get hot enough to win four games in a row. The Ravens absolutely clear that bar for me. Their losses to the Steelers and Eagles have highlighted their weaknesses, but we already knew about those weaknesses — just as we know about the Chiefs’ weaknesses and the Eagles’ weaknesses and the Lions’ weaknesses. It’s just that those teams haven’t lost as many games recently.

A good proxy for the “can they make a playoff run?” question is the “how scared would you be if you had to play them?” question. When I start ranking the AFC teams that I wouldn’t want to see on the opposing sideline of a playoff game, I certainly start with the Bills and Chiefs (probably in that order). After that … the Steelers? The Chargers? The Texans? The Broncos?

The answer is pretty clear to me: Baltimore. Lamar Jackson. Derrick Henry. Don’t like it!

Postseason football is a different cat. You have to throw out a lot of regular-season results and metrics. It becomes an exercise in styles, coaching and, most critically, health. Baltimore’s recent struggles won’t matter much when it’s facing the Steelers in the divisional round, just as its huge Week 4 victory over the Bills won’t matter much when it gets Buffalo in the AFC Championship Game.

From Johnny: “I’ve seen a lot of talk over where Aaron Rodgers could/should play next year, but his game vs. Seattle was real stinky IMO, missing easy “go” balls and underthrowing completed passes all game. Should any team seriously be in on Rodgers in 2025? Is there any juice left in that squeeze that I’m not aware of?”

Absolutely not. Rodgers has shown all season that he doesn’t have much interest in adjusting his play style to account for anything. That includes his diminishing arm and mobility, the strengths and weaknesses of his pass catchers and the design of modern offenses. He isn’t capable of quarterbacking a top offense in this league so long as he retains his current approach.

From JP: “Why is the Eagles’ passing game so bad sometimes when they have an elite OL, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley?”

Well, there’s one guy on the field you didn’t name, so unfortunately that’s your answer. Jalen Hurts has improved this season both in processing speed and pre-snap recognition, but he still struggles to manage a pocket and throw on the move. The interception issues from earlier in the season have disappeared but probably will regress back to the mean at some point. Hurts is hugely valuable in the Eagles’ run game, but he is still not a great passer.

From John: “Would you give Brock Purdy a mega-extension?”

No. But I still think the 49ers will.

Next Ben Stats

NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.

minus-61.6%: That’s how much total win probability the Ravens have lost this season when Justin Tucker has attempted a field goal.

For context, Tucker added 167.1% total win probability from 2016 to 2023. He was the only kicker to add more than 40% total win probability over that time. Now he has missed eight of 27 field goal attempts this season, including two Sunday against the Eagles. I cannot stress this enough: Tucker has gone from an ace-up-your-sleeve, game-deciding advantage to an absolute liability.

Do you remember when the Ravens stole a game from the Lions in 2021? Tucker hit an NFL-record 66-yarder as time expired to win the game 19-17. On that go-ahead drive, the Ravens had no timeouts and 64 seconds, and Lamar Jackson was sacked twice. They had to attempt a fourth-and-19 from their 16-yard line with no timeouts. The only way to possibly win such a game is having a kicker who can reasonably hit a 60-plus-yard field goal. It’s still a long shot, but it’s at least in a realm of possibility.

The Ravens long existed in that world, and now they don’t. If they’re down 17-16 to the Bills in the divisional round with one minute and no timeouts, sure, they’ll still trot Tucker out for the 60-plus-yarder if they must — but they won’t be confidently thinking field goal. They won’t be thinking it at even the 40 or the 30 because of the kicks he has missed. The struggles of Tucker this season dramatically affect the Ravens’ fourth-down decision-making in plus territory, which in turn affects their third-down playcalling, timeout usage and clock management.

The shakiness of Tucker trickles up into the rest of the organization, and even if he hits every single kick between now and then, the seed of doubt has been planted.

1,422: That’s how many days ago the last Steelers quarterback threw for 400 yards in a single game before Russell Wilson did it Sunday against the Bengals.

It was a wild-card game against the Browns at the end of the 2020 season. The Browns went up 28-0 in the first quarter after three Steelers turnovers. Then Ben Roethlisberger dropped back — I kid you not — 68 times and attempted 68 passes for 501 yards. That is, of course, one way to get over 400.

Wilson’s way this week was a little cooler. He did it in fewer than 40 pass attempts, only the fourth-such game in the past two seasons. And accordingly, he did it with extreme efficiency. Wilson’s 61.0% success rate Sunday is the best number of his past four seasons, a remarkable achievement. His play has generally trended toward low success rates over the past few years, as he produces a few big plays at the cost of many poor plays. But everything was clicking for the Pittsburgh offense Sunday.

The fact the Steelers have this game in their range of outcomes — even if this was a total peak game — is an enormous deal. Remember, under the previous offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers went 44 games without generating more than 400 yards of offense. The hard ceiling on the offense limited their postseason viability, but that hard ceiling is no longer there.

64%: That’s the percentage of plays for which the Bills were under center against the 49ers, their highest in a game since 2019. They also ran for 205 yards and two scores when under center, and that 205 number is the most in the Sean McDermott era.

This is major for the Bills’ playoff hopes. It’s easy to forget, but a few years ago, we lamented the fact that the Bills were this shotgun spread team that could never run the football. They had only one mode of offense — Josh Allen dropbacks — and while that led to huge Stefon Diggs games and amazing fireworks, it made them one-dimensional and predictable.

That isn’t the case this season. If I had a vote for Assistant Coach of the Year, I’d seriously consider casting it for Bills offensive line coach Aaron Kromer, who has shepherded the development of many young players. Left tackle Dion Dawkins is one of the best in the league, right tackle Spencer Brown has taken huge strides and right guard O’Cyrus Torrence is catching up to both of them. Kromer spearheaded the change in the how Buffalo runs the football.

The Bills now have the sort of running game that can create an early lead or salt away a late one. This is, without question, the most balanced offense Allen has ever led into the postseason — and the most dangerous.

‘Monday Night Jameis’

Each week, we will pick out one or two of the biggest storylines from “Monday Night Football” and break down what it means for the rest of the season.

Here’s the stat line that Cleveland quarterback Jameis Winston posted for the Browns against one of the best pass defenses in football Monday: 34-for-58, 497 passing yards (a healthy 8.6 yards per attempt), four touchdown passes and three interceptions. Two of those three interceptions, by the way, were pick-sixes — in a game the Browns lost by only nine points.

There have been only seven quarterbacking games since 2000 in which a passer achieved at least 450 passing yards, four touchdown throws and three picks, and Winston is the only quarterback to have multiple such games (two). In fact, Winston is only the third player in NFL history to throw for 400-plus yards and have multiple pick-sixes in one game, joining Brett Favre and Kyle Orton.

Winston is, without question, one of the most explosive passers to watch throw the football, and he has been since his Tampa Bay and New Orleans days. Now, is he a reliable starter for a contending team? Probably not. The erratic plays are just too much to overcome. But the Browns probably won’t be a contending team next season, and Winston has certainly proven he can move the ball for this offense.

His deal will expire at the end of this season, and the 31-year-old should be able to cash in during free agency. I’d much sooner give a player of his skill set the deal that Gardner Minshew got (two years, $25 million) than give it to Minshew himself. In fact, I’d imagine Winston is likely to get a bigger deal from another team than he would get from the Browns, who will be penny-pinching as they prepare to extract themselves from the Deshaun Watson contract.

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Ja’Quan McMillian seals a Broncos win with clutch pick-six

Ja’Quan McMillian makes a leaping interception and runs it back to slam the door on the Browns.

So while Winston and the Browns feel like an easy fit for 2025 and maybe beyond, I’m not sold that Winston will feel the need to stay in Cleveland — especially if the Browns elect to keep Watson on the roster for another year, which might be a financial inevitability. Does Winston become a Giant? A Titan? A Panther? There will be starting jobs and bigger deals up for grabs.

With that in mind, if I were running the Browns, I would be talking to Winston and his agent now. I would see if I could get him on an extension before free agency and before I commit to any particular solution to the Watson contract. And then, I’d sit back and watch Winston throw for 350 yards on 60 attempts next week and at the very least believe I’d brought entertaining football back to Cleveland.