Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 4, which kicks off Thursday with the Cowboys at the Giants.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

Jump to:
DAL-NYG | NO-ATL | LAR-CHI | MIN-GB | PIT-IND | DEN-NYJ | PHI-TB | CIN-CAR | JAX-HOU | WAS-ARI | NE-SF | CLE-LV | KC-LAC | BUF-BAL | TEN-MIA | SEA-DET

Projected Score: Cowboys 24, Giants 20

Lineup locks: CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Jake Ferguson

Devin Singletary has taken clear control of the Giants’ backfield, having played on 60% of snaps and averaging 17.0 touches per game. After a slow start in Week 1, Singletary has now had 17-plus touches, 95-plus yards and a score in consecutive games. He’s arguably a “lineup lock” this week against a Dallas defense that has allowed the most yards, TDs and fantasy points to running backs. No. 1 RBs are averaging 31.3 fantasy PPG against Dallas through three weeks.

Over/Under: 44 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 62% (5th highest)

Projected Score: Saints 23, Falcons 21

Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Drake London

Kyle Pitts has played on 78% of snaps and has run 83% of the routes this season, both career highs. The bad news is that he’s seeing a career-low 14% target share, which has allowed him only an 8-105-1 receiving line on 11 targets. Perhaps Pitts will turn the corner soon. After all, he did see a season-high five targets in Week 3 and is facing a New Orleans defense that allowed 27 points to Dallas Goedert last week. For now, he’s a fringe top-10 option.

Over/Under: 44 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 58% (9th highest)

Projected Score: Bears 20, Rams 19

Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, DJ Moore

Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet are on the rise after both posted their best game of the season in Week 3. Odunze exploded for a 6-112-1 receiving line on 11 targets after managing only 44 yards on nine targets during Weeks 1 and 2. Of course, Keenan Allen was sidelined, so Odunze (who has played on 92% of snaps) will be a safe WR3 option only if Allen remains out. This is a terrific matchup against a Rams defense that allowed 46.5 fantasy points to Jauan Jennings last week.

Kmet opened the season behind Gerald Everett on the depth chart, but his snap share has increased from 47% to 76% to 81%, with his target share following suit. Kmet matched a career high with 11 targets last week, which resulted in a 10-97-1 receiving line. The Rams have allowed the fourth-most yards and fantasy points to tight ends, which helps Kmet’s cause as a streaming option, especially if Allen remains out.

Over/Under: 39.6 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Bears 53% (13th highest)

Projected Score: Vikings 23, Packers 23

Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, Justin Jefferson, Jayden Reed

Jacobs is listed as a lock because Jordan Love may return and you likely don’t have a better RB2 option, but there is reason for concern here. The ex-Raider has yet to find the end zone or clear 13.1 fantasy points in any game. While he’s been very busy as a rusher — his 62 carries ranks third among RBs — he’s been limited to four targets (52nd).

Perhaps Jacobs will get rolling with Love under center, but note that he was reduced to a 51% snap share in Week 3 with Emanuel Wilson taking on a larger role (and not just when the game was already decided). Additionally, this is a tough matchup against a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-fewest RB yards and sixth-fewest RB fantasy points.

Over/Under: 46.2 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 50% (16th highest)

Projected Score: Colts 21, Steelers 20