The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ season opener in 2023 was a thriller, a 20-17 road victory over the Minnesota Vikings in which Baker Mayfield threw two touchdowns in his Buccaneer debut and Chase McLaughlin drilled a 57-yard field goal in the fourth quarter to win it. That set the stage for a rousing 3-1 start to the season for Tampa Bay and, eventually, a third straight NFC South title.

A team’s Week One results can set the tone for an entire season, and though the Buccaneers had to overcome a midseason dip to storm back into first place, the road win over a Vikings team coming off a 13-4 season in 2022 was a great sign. The 2024 Bucs, with Mayfield and a number of other key players back on brand-new contracts (most recently Antoine Winfield Jr.), have high hopes for another playoff chase and would love to get off to another fast start.

Where might that happen? And against which team? That’s what we’re here to predict today, as the 2024 NFL schedule is set to drop on Wednesday night. (Here’s how to watch.) It’s our annual attempt to narrow down the Buccaneers’ Week One matchup to three possibilities, using as much logic and available information as possible and then throwing a trio of darts.

First off, here are the choices.

Home: 49ers, Broncos, Commanders, Eagles, Falcons, Panthers, Raiders, Ravens, Saints

Away: Chargers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Falcons, Giants, Lions, Panthers, Saints

The first step in this exercise is to eliminate as many options as possible. It’s a good year for that, as we can already cross five teams off the list due to select games the NFL has already announced ahead of the full schedule reveal. One game in particular pulls double duty for us, as the Chiefs will play host to the Ravens in the NFL’s annual Kickoff Game on Thursday night in Week One. So the Bucs will definitely not be heading to Kansas City or playing at home against Baltimore that week.

We also already know that Green Bay is opening the season in São Paulo, Brazil in Week One, and since their opponent is the Eagles that means there will be no visit from Philadelphia to Raymond James Stadium to kick things off. In addition, the league has already announced two other Week One matchups in the Jets at 49ers and the Cowboys at Browns. Both the 49ers and Cowboys are on the list of Bucs opponents above, but they won’t be facing the Bucs on opening weekend.

So we’re now down to 12 options, and I’m going to apply some guesswork to narrow it down a little further. The Bears and Commanders started off the 2024 NFL draft by selecting quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels with the first two picks, and both young passers are widely expected to be opening-day starters. Chicago and Washington do play each other in 2024, and I’m thinking the league will pair them up in Week One, much like they did when the Buccaneers and Titans drafted Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, respectively, with the first two picks in 2015. So I’m scratching Washington off this list.

This next one is probably more wishful thinking than solid logic, but with both Dallas and Detroit on the Bucs’ list of road trips this year, I’m hoping Tampa Bay will be invited back to the Thanksgiving table in 2024. Tampa Bay has only played on Thanksgiving once, at Dallas in 2006, and given the Bucs’ three straight division titles and four straight playoff appearances, they seem like an attractive option to put back in that spotlight. We’ve already eliminated Dallas; let’s cross off Detroit, too. That would be a nice rematch of a very good Divisional Playoff game at Ford Field last January.

So now we’re down to 10 total options, and seven potential opponents since we still have all three NFC South foes on the board. It’s worth noting that the Bucs have not started the season against a team in their division since 2020, when they opened up at New Orleans. From 2012 to 2020, the Bucs had an NFC South team first on their schedule five times in nine years, so that’s certainly not an idea we should eliminate. So I’m going to make at least one of my three picks come from that pool.

Also, the Bucs have been on the road in Week One in each of the last two years, in three of the last four and in six of the last eight. Seems like they are due for another home game in Week One, so two of my three picks are going to come from that group of opponents.

Okay, I’m done with the preamble. I’m picking the following three potential Week One opponents for the Buccaneers, in no particular order: