A top executive at Canadian uranium miner and producer Cameco (CCO.TO)(CCJ) warns U.S. President Donald Trump’s 10 per cent tariff on energy imports from Canada will drive up prices as American utilities shop for millions of pounds of nuclear fuel needed to keep their reactors running.

Speaking at a metals and mining conference in Florida hosted by the Bank of Montreal, Cameco executive vice-president and chief financial officer Grant Isaac calls the Trump administration’s proposed 10 per cent levy on Canadian uranium “the wrong strategy” from the perspective of U.S. utilities.

“Utilities today, between now and 2040, have to buy 2.1 billion pounds of uranium in order to meet their run rate requirements,” he said on Monday. “It can be delayed, it can be deferred, but it ultimately cannot be avoided.”

Isaac calls 2.1 billion pounds a conservative estimate. It does not account for new facilities, major demand growth linked to AI, or adoption of small modular nuclear reactors.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Canada was the largest source of American uranium deliveries in 2023, supplying 27 per cent. Australia and Kazakhstan followed with 22 per cent each. U.S. material accounted for five per cent of total deliveries.

“You’re not going to get U.S. production covering the gap of the Canadian uranium production, period. I’m not even going to put a time frame on it,” Isaac said. “They say, ‘Oh well, non-tariffed countries to the rescue.’ Well, non-tariff countries will simply increase their price to just below the tariff.”

“That’s the wrong strategy, to put tariffs in place,” he added. “If there’s a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian uranium, then the price of uranium is structurally going up 10 per cent, or just under 10 per cent, as everybody takes advantage of it.”

Prior to his election, Trump repeatedly promised to cut energy and electricity prices in half within 18 months of taking office. His secretary of energy, Chris Wright, declared a national energy emergency in January. Earlier this month, Wright signed an order directing the U.S. Department of Energy to launch a “long-awaited American nuclear renaissance” during Trump’s presidency.

While uranium spot prices have slipped nearly 40 per cent from highs last year above US$100 per pound, analysts say persistent supply challenges and rising global nuclear commitments support a return to higher prices. According to Sprott Asset Management, the U3O8 spot price has risen a cumulative 186.14 per cent over the five years ended Jan. 31.

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