Will Grant
Reporting from Mexico City

In essence, the
imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexican goods has been expected by the
Mexican government from the moment Donald Trump won the presidency. In recent
days, President Claudia Sheinbaum has called for “cool heads” in dealing with
the trade dispute – and with Washington more generally – under President
Trump.

On Friday, her Finance
Minister, Marcelo Ebrard, a former foreign minister with first-hand experience
of the first Trump administration, suggested tariffs would be more harmful to
the US given it imports everything from avocados to car parts from Mexico. The
Mexican government considers a trade war as unwelcome, unwise and avoidable,
especially between supposedly friendly neighbours and close allies.

Yet despite the apparent
calm in Mexico City, there will no doubt be some dismay at the aggressive tone
of the statement from the White House. It accuses the Sheinbaum government of
having “an intolerable alliance” with Mexican drug trafficking organisations
and of providing “safe havens for the cartels to engage in the manufacturing
and transportation of dangerous narcotics”.

Few Mexicans are under
any illusions of the extent of the complicity between corrupt local and state
forces and politicians and the country’s cartels.

But Sheinbaum
has only been in office since October and has chosen as her Public Security
Minister, Omar Garcia Harfuch, a former police officer with strong credentials
for the role.

The Mexican government might have hoped for a different start to
the dialogue with the US on the toughest issues of their shared border – namely
undocumented immigration and fentanyl trafficking. But the Trump administration, and Trump himself, believes tariffs are an effective way to
bring Mexico to the negotiating table – with Washington in the dominant
position.