By Rajesh Mehta

The United States election 2024 has been one of the most awaited and consequential races for the presidency in recent memory. The race is remarkably close with razor-thin margins in key swing states which will decide the Presidential election’s outcome.

Commenting on the issue of the margins deciding the elections, Deepak Raj, a prominent Indian philanthropist & business leader says: “Every vote matters in a close election. IMPACT’s focused on South Asian voters in swing states with whom Harris has a significant lead. We could be the margin of victory in this election. Harris is the better candidate who will help small businesses, expand economic opportunity, improve health and wellbeing, and have more favourable immigration policies.”

The elections also bring out sharp splits in policy issues and personalities across the board. From the flurry of recent resignations at the Washington Post to the split of billionaires along party lines like Elon Musk on his outspoken support for the Republican side.

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The splits are also crystalizing along the populace with the male demographic leaning towards Trump while women give Harris a lead. Seniors above forty are likelier to support Trump while those younger have a stronger progressive leaning. As Shekar Narasimhan, the Chairman of the AAPI Victory Fund says “The US feels like Charles Dickens’ The Tale of Two Cities: ‘It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness’. My view is that most voters want to turn the page and move into the future. Yes, they are afraid and concerned, but also hopeful. Kamala Harris appeals to their better selves and that is why she will prevail in this contest.”

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While critics of Trump accuse him of racism, chauvinism, disregard for the climate, being divisive for American politics and causing a democratic decay in the US, those that support him point to the strong economy and low levels of inflation during his period as clear plusses. Trump is also branded as the “candidate of peace” given his non-involvement in any new conflicts by the US during his term and his inclination for isolationism that keeps America away from foreign wars.

Karthik Rangarajan, a community leader in the Indian-American diaspora is bullish on Trump. “Donald Trump will win back the Presidency and make history, with victories in all battleground states and the national popular vote, and emerge winner before midnight on November 5th. Kamala Harris’ shortcomings are her lack of clarity and communication in establishing her policy positions and the burden of the historic levels of anti-incumbency of this current Biden administration,” he says.

On Harris’s side, her weak stance on the southern border is a particularly thorny issue for voters. Her position on the economy, given a sense of anti-incumbency, is also criticised as one of her weaknesses. On the other hand, she is considered as the more predictable, empathetic and climate-sensitive candidate. In particular, on the issue of climate, Ravi Karkara, co-founder of AIForFood Global Initiative adds: “In the midst of a global climate crisis, America needs a leader dedicated to sustainable development and bold climate action. US leadership is essential to driving green growth and harnessing AI innovations that pave the way for a sustainable future— not just for our nation, but for the world.”

The election matters not just for the US, but for the whole world. The results will have ripple effects on international relations and geopolitics calculus as well as on minorities and diaspora in the US. This view is echoed by Mohan Reddy, a prominent Indian-American businessman. He says: “Our perspective often focuses on several key areas such as the impact on US-India relations, economic policy, immigration, and cultural representation. Many in our community pay close attention to candidates’ stances on US-India trade, tech collaboration, and strategic partnerships, as well as policies that impact the H-1B visa reforms and green card. The cultural visibility and influence of Indian-origin politicians, especially those running in the US, add a layer of interest, symbolizing representation and highlighting issues important to the community. With metastasizing anti-Hindu rhetoric from lawmakers on either side of the globe, most voters will be wary of the changing landscape and be looking towards a more inclusive approach.”

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The outcome of the 2024 US Presidential elections will be transformational. It will guide the future of geopolitics from the Middle East, Ukraine and the South China Sea among others. It will impact the transition to cleaner energy and contestation between the US & China. It will determine if the US continues to have sensitive immigration policies and attitudes towards minorities or not. It’ll also determine the state of the US economy, inflation & unemployment – the effects of which reverberates in economies around the globe. The decision of the American people will be seen on November 5.

(The author, Rajesh Mehta, is an expert on India-US relationships, market entry, and public policy. Views expressed are of the respective people quoted and not necessarily those of financialexpress.com.)