U.S. job openings climbed unexpectedly to 8.1 million in November, the highest since February, defying forecasts of a slight decline, according to the Labor Department’s latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

The rise highlights steady labor demand despite a cooling economy and persistent inflationary pressures.

Why It Matters

These figures show an increase from October’s revised figure of 7.8 million. Job openings remain below last year’s 8.9 million and far below the peak of 12.2 million in March 2022, when the economy was rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic. Job openings also continue to exceed pre-pandemic levels, reflecting a labor market still adjusting to post-pandemic dynamics.

The American labor market has steadily cooled from its record-setting hiring in 2021-2023, when monthly job growth averaged as high as 604,000. By 2024, that number slowed to 180,000 through November. Economists expect December’s figures, due Friday, to show an additional 160,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2 percent.

What To Know

The November increase in job openings was driven by higher demand in professional and business services, finance, and insurance, while the information sector, which includes publishing and telecommunications, experienced declines. Despite hiring slowdowns, job openings rose by 259,000, primarily among small businesses and professional roles, reflecting ongoing demand for skilled labor even as employers exercise caution.

Hiring slowed sharply overall, with the total number of hires falling by 125,000 to 5.269 million, largely due to declines in professional services and manufacturing. Smaller businesses, particularly those with fewer than 250 employees, saw the steepest declines. Layoffs remained relatively stable at 1.765 million.

The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers rose slightly to 1.13 in November, compared to 1.12 in October, but remains below pre-pandemic averages. Meanwhile, voluntary quits dropped by 218,000, signaling reduced worker confidence in finding better opportunities amid economic uncertainty.

How Will The Fed React To This Information?

Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring these labor market trends as they weigh future interest rate adjustments. After aggressive rate hikes in 2022 and 2023, the Fed began easing its stance late last year but has projected only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four earlier estimates, citing persistent inflationary pressures.

Adding to the uncertainty are incoming policies from President-elect Donald Trump, including potential new tariffs and immigration reforms. These measures could drive labor demand while also toying with inflation, complicating the Fed’s present strategy.

What People Are Saying

Robert Frick, an economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union: “Despite more job openings, hiring is weakening, workers are even more reluctant to quit their jobs, and layoffs are low. It feels like a wait-and-see scenario as employers and employees alike wait for the next administration’s policies.”

Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, to Reuters: “There is no signal here of any sudden collapse of the labor market here or imminent recession. Instead, these data signal the economy is nearing full employment, not moving away from it. The Fed will find no cause to rush to cut rates, the labor market does not need it.”

Heather Long, economic columnist at The Washington Post, on X: “It’s really hard to get a job right now. Yes, unemployment is low. Yes, there were 8.1 million job openings. But that does not mean companies/orgs were hiring. Pay attention to the hiring rate. That’s what Americans feel and see.”

What’s Next

Economists expect December’s employment report to reflect job growth of around 160,000 as disruptions from earlier extreme weather and labor strikes fade. Longer-term trends will depend on factors like Trump’s proposed trade policies following his January 20 inauguration and what the Federal Reserve will do in response.

This article includes reporting from The Associated Press.