(Bloomberg) — Forecasters anticipate a monthly report on US employment will show a steady unemployment rate even as storms and strikes put a temporary dent in hiring.

Payrolls probably rose by 105,000 in October following September’s 254,000 increase, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The range of expectations is wide — from a 10,000 decline to a 180,000 increase.

Unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 4.1% in the report due Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The numbers will complicate the picture for Federal Reserve officials trying to discern the outlook for the labor market at their Nov. 6-7 policy meeting. Still, the central bank is widely expected to authorize a quarter-point interest-rate cut at the meeting, following on from an initial half-point reduction in September.

“Fed officials will be more inclined to ‘look through’ downside as hurricane-related, choosing only to react if payroll growth comes in strong,” Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, said in an Oct. 30 note previewing the numbers.

Here’s what to watch for in key components of the report:

Nonfarm Payrolls

A 105,000 addition to payrolls would mark the worst month for hiring in almost four years, though many forecasters are already discounting a weak reading given the temporary hit from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as a weeks-long strike at Boeing.

The BLS estimates 44,000 workers were involved in large strikes during the week that companies were surveyed for the report — compared with 2,600 in September.

The hurricanes “probably weighed on payrolls across the board, especially in leisure & hospitality,” Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra said in an Oct. 30 note. Altogether, the storms and strikes may have lowered payrolls by at least 50,000 last month, while temporary hiring ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election likely boosted government payrolls by 25,000, according to the economist.

Labor Force

Analysts will probably pay more attention to the unemployment rate, which is based on a different survey than payrolls and is seen as less affected by the storms and the strikes. The labor force participation rate, which is calculated from the same household survey as the jobless rate, is also expected to remain unchanged from September at 62.7%.

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

“The household survey — which counts people who couldn’t work because of weather as employed — will likely show a more decent pace of hiring. A boost in government jobs related to the upcoming election, as well as the emergency response to the hurricanes, should provide key support.”

— Anna Wong, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins, economists

To read the full note, click here

The unemployment rate rose from a low of 3.4% last year to 4.3% in July, before edging lower in each of the next two months. Economists widely interpreted an influx of foreigners across the Southern border as a factor behind the increase, but border crossings have come down over the last several months.

“Slowing labor force growth, partially reflecting a moderating contribution from immigration, should allow for the gradual absorption of newer entrants to the labor force into employment, putting downward pressure on that cohort’s unemployment rate,” Goldman Sachs economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels said in an Oct. 31 preview of the numbers.

Hourly Earnings

Many analysts see the potential for the hurricanes to provide a temporary boost to hourly earnings owing to declines in hours worked, which serve as the denominator in the calculation. 

But after two months of strong wage gains in August and September, economists still expect softer growth in October. The median estimate in Bloomberg’s survey calls for a deceleration in growth of average hourly earnings to 0.3% on a monthly basis, leaving the 12-month rate of change at 4%.

“If wage growth remains consistently strong, this could be a concerning sign for inflationary pressures, but ultimately, we do think a weakening labor market is putting downward pressure on wages,” Citi economists Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst said in an Oct. 28 preview of the report.

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