Why Tom picked the Bengals: Joe Burrow and Co. have generated offense at a merciless pace lately, putting up imposing per-game marks (28 points, fourth-most in the NFL, and 359 yards, 10th-most) that look even better when the strange Week 1 loss to the Patriots is excised from the data pool. (Between Weeks 2 and 5, they averaged 32.5 points, second-most in that span, and 392.8 yards, sixth-most.) The problem is, Burrow and Co. have finished ahead of the other team just once so far this season — but surely it will happen again sometime. The Giants did throw cold water on the similarly high-flying Seahawks offense last week, and I worry a little that they’ll be able to work similar magic, though they’ll be without key pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, who had wrist surgery this week. My bigger worry is that Daniel Jones will enjoy himself as much as everyone else has against the Bengals’ barely-there defense. Perhaps the smarter play is to pick against Cincy’s D unless given a compelling reason to do otherwise. If this comes down to an offensive skills competition, though, I like Burrow to finally break through for another win.