Despite winning two consecutive Super Bowls, the Chiefs have a lot to play for in 2024.

Kansas City can make NFL history as the only team to ever win three Lombardi Trophies in a row. Patrick Mahomes can also add to his collection and chip away at Tom Brady’s title record. The same goes for Andy Reid on the all-time head coaching rank. Even tight end Travis Kelce can continue to add to his legacy and stake a claim to the best player of all-time at his position.

However, the Chiefs don’t open the year as favorites when it comes to ESPN’s Football Power Index. This metric is a prediction measurement of how much a team is better or worse than the average team in the NFL. It’s a fluid tool used by ESPN to determine power rankings without bias — even if it comes with disagreements. 

Oddly enough, the Chiefs finished the 2023 season ranked seventh in ESPN’s FPI even after winning the Super Bowl. So while advanced analytics didn’t think the Chiefs were the best team in the NFL a year ago, the Chiefs still proved everyone wrong thanks to the play of Mahomes and the defense against the 49ers.

Here’s how ESPN ranked the Chiefs ahead of the 2024 season.

Chiefs aren’t top team in NFL, per ESPN’s Football Power Index

The Chiefs finished No. 2 in ESPN’s first FPI ranking before the 2024 season. Kansas City earned a 5.0 — meaning the Chiefs are five games better than the average NFL team heading into the season.

The only team ranked ahead of Kansas City was the team they beat in the Super Bowl. ESPN gave the 49ers a 5.1 PFI, just slightly ahead of the Chiefs. Kansas City and San Francisco were the only two teams to earn at least a 5.0.

Kansas City’s offense finished second as well behind San Francisco with a 4.1. The defense finished tied for seventh with 0.7, while the special teams tied for third with 0.2.

CHIEFS 2024 SEASON: Full schedule | Primetime games | Draft class

This aligns with how the Chiefs look on paper. Mahomes and Kelce are great, but that alone isn’t enough to elevate them past the rest of the NFL. The 49ers collection of skill position players is still better, even if the Chiefs took them down in the Super Bowl. Defensively, the Chiefs lost one of its top players, L’Jarius Sneed. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is still there, but it’s unclear how the rest of the defense will look a year after finishing as one of the top units in the league.

The Chiefs added two key offensive weapons in Marquise Brown and first-round rookie Xavier Worthy, too. Will that be enough? Mahomes and company succeed with far less on offense. But the path through the AFC might be more difficult in 2024 with a daunting schedule and some teams getting healthy this year.

Maybe the Chiefs don’t care about analytics, but this will at least be locker-room material for KC in their quest for a three-peat.