(Bloomberg) — US employers probably tempered their hiring last month to wrap up a year of moderating yet still-healthy job growth that economists expect to carry on in 2025.
Payrolls increased 160,000 in December, when the labor market moved beyond distortions caused by hurricanes and strike activity in previous months, according to the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would put average monthly job growth near 180,000 for 2024 — lower than the prior three years but consistent with a firm labor market.
The monthly jobs data on Friday are unlikely to alter the view of Federal Reserve officials that they can slow the pace of interest-rate cuts amid a durable economy and inflation that’s dissipating only gradually. Investors on Wednesday will parse minutes of the Fed’s December meeting for additional insight on how torn policymakers were on the quarter-point reduction in rates. At the time, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack was the lone dissenter.
Speaking late on Saturday, two Fed officials — Mary Daly and Adriana Kugler — emphasized the US central bank must finish off its fight against the post-pandemic price surge and reach its 2% inflation target.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings growth is seen cooling a touch from a month earlier — consistent with a labor market that’s no longer a source of inflation.
A separate Labor Department report on Tuesday is forecast to show little change in November job openings from the prior month. The number of vacancies is about 1 million higher than it was at the end of 2019, while the ratio of openings per unemployed person is in line with its pre-pandemic level.
“The consensus on Wall Street is that US economic exceptionalism will continue in 2025. Nonfarm payrolls will add fuel to such talk. We expect December’s headline print to be a blowout, with most sectors showing improved hiring. Some of that may be a continued reversal from October’s weak, hurricane-affected print — something that won’t last. We also expect job openings to stabilize, and jobless claims to remain low.”
—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou & Chris G. Collins, economists. For full analysis, click here
A number of US central bankers will appear at public speaking events in the coming week, including Fed governors Lisa Cook on Monday and Christopher Waller on Wednesday.
In Canada, jobs data for December will be released after the unemployment rate jumped to 6.8% the previous month. The merchandise trade report will show whether Canada’s economy remains in a deficit with the world, despite a surplus with the US that’s a source of ire for President-elect Donald Trump.
Elsewhere, several major economies will release inflation data, with China likely to be close to deflation and the euro zone seeing an uptick.
Below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy for the first full week of 2025.
Asia
Inflation data will dominate, giving investors clues on future monetary policy moves.
On Wednesday, Australia is expected to reveal a slight uptick in inflation — although the focus will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure, which could potentially slip back into policymakers’ 2%-3% target band.
On Thursday, China will probably report that its CPI was close to deflation in December while PPI continued to contract, a sign that an array of government stimulus measures haven’t done enough to boost demand. Thailand and the Philippines will also publish inflation figures during the week.
India’s government will release its economic growth estimate for the current fiscal year on Tuesday, as concerns mount about weak consumer spending. Industrial production data on Friday will give investors further clues about the growth outlook.
In Japan, data on Thursday will likely show a pickup in wage growth.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
Inflation will be an overarching theme throughout Europe for the week. Data in the euro zone on Tuesday are likely to show a slight acceleration in price growth in December, further above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
That reading, stoked by higher fuel prices, will arrive concurrently with numbers from Italy and after reports from France and Germany within the preceding 24 hours. Each of those three economies is anticipated to have seen faster inflation.
The ECB’s measure of consumer price expectations will also be published on Tuesday. Few public appearances by officials are scheduled.
Elsewhere in the euro area, factory orders and industrial production will be released in Germany on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, each providing the latest glimpse into the poor health of manufacturing in the region’s biggest economy. France and Spain will publish equivalent output numbers on Friday.
Inflation in Switzerland, scheduled for Tuesday, may show further weakening that could put pressure on policymakers to cut rates again this year. Economists forecast an outcome of 0.6% for December.
Swedish inflation — also seen slowing — will be released the following day, while consumer-price data from Norway and Denmark are due on Friday.
Two monetary decisions are scheduled in the wider region:
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On Monday, Israel’s central bank will probably hold its base rate at 4.5%. Although growth has slowed because of the wars against Hamas and Hezbollah over the past year, inflation at 3.4% remains above the government’s target of 1-3%.
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On Wednesday, Tanzania may lower its rate from the current 6%, judging that a 12% appreciation in the shilling against the dollar in the past three months is likely to keep prices in check.
Latin America
By the end of the week, the region’s big central banks will all have their final 2024 inflation grades — and all but Peru will have failed to hit their target yet again.
Colombia will probably see a 19th month of disinflation since March 2023, though consumer prices are unlikely do more than drift slightly lower from 5.2%. In Mexico, too, consumer prices likely cooled for the fourth month in five, from 4.55%.
By contrast, Chile’s consumer prices likely accelerated for the seventh month in nine, from 4.2%, while Brazil’s prints close to 5%, far from its 3% target, with the economy overheating.
Brazilian industrial output and retail sales have been running well above trend since May, although the November readings are expected to begin losing steam under the weight of tighter financial conditions.
Peru’s central bank meets Thursday and the early consensus call is for a quarter-point cut, to 4.75%. Banxico and Banco Central de Chile post minutes of their December meetings, with investors on alert for any shifts in outlook or guidance.
Chile at 5% is near its forecast terminal rate of 4%, while Banxico at 10% is seen to be 500 basis points shy of its likely first-quarter 2027 terminus of 5%.
–With assistance from Monique Vanek, Nasreen Seria and Robert Jameson.
(Updates with Fed speakers in fourth paragraph)
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