PROJECTED POINTS: 17.4

Michelle:  In his short career, Stroud has been a fantastic fantasy asset against AFC South divisional opponents (21.2 fantasy points per game) but has struggled outside the division (16.1 FPPG). In his two non-divisional games this season, against the Bears and Vikings, he scored just 14.3 and 9.8 points, respectively. I expect another disappointing fantasy performance from him this Sunday in a tough matchup against the Bills, who have yet to allow a quarterback to throw for 180-plus yards in a game this season.

The Bills’ zone-heavy defense could make things hard on Stroud, who has been a much more effective passer against man coverage in 2024. The difference is actually quite stark, with his completion percentage against zone coverage this season 10 percentage points lower (76.2% to 66.1%) and his passer rating nearly 50 points lower (138.3 to 89.9) than when he’s faced man, per Next Gen Stats.