Harris Vs. Trump On The Economy: Americans Split On Who’s Better For Inflation, Jobs And Taxes

Posted by author October 22, 2024 Jobs

Topline

Americans are fairly split down the middle on whether they prefer Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump or Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to lead the economy, according to polling released Tuesday, as the American economy sits at a potential inflection point heading into the election.

Harris, right, and Trump debate last month.

AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

An Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released Tuesday found a nearly even split for the candidates across several hot-button issues: Voters favored Harris 41% to 36% on housing costs, 42% to 40% on jobs and unemployment and 46% to 34% on middle class taxes, while respondents opted for Trump by a 42% to 40% margin in jobs and unemployment and a 40% to 38% split on tariffs.

A September AP-NORC survey found a 43% to 41% margin preferring Trump over Harris as the more trustworthy candidate to handle the economy broadly, while a similar survey conducted for The Financial Times and the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business and released last month found 44% of Americans favored Harris to shepherd the economy compared to Trump’s 42%.

A New York Times and Siena College poll released last month found 54% of respondents trusted Trump to lead the economy compared to 41% for Harris.

Though Harris has narrowed the edge on Trump on the economy compared to President Joe Biden, polling has suggested Americans strongly favor Trump in terms of the impact on their personal finances.

The last Financial Times survey revealed 40% of Americans believe Trump will leave them better off financially, compared to 35% for Harris, the latest poll showing Trump with a big advantage in that regard after a CNBC survey released in August which found 40% of respondents believed Trump would leave them better off financially, compared to 21% for Harris.

Tangent

As the Federal Reserve enacted the first interest rate cuts since 2020 and the stock market hits new highs, views of the economy improved, with a CBS News poll released last month finding 39% of Americans believe the country’s economic condition is good, up from 35% last month. The CBS survey found Harris has made gains among likely voters who consider the economy a top issue, as Trump’s lead over Harris among that demographic narrowed from 56% to 43% in August to 53% to 47%.

Key Background

Trump’s economic plan has largely focused on deregulation in the energy and financial industries, touting the much-better inflation during his presidency than Biden’s, and instituting significant tariffs on Chinese goods. The U.S. economy performed very well under both Trump and Biden by most metrics, with historically low unemployment, strong stock market performance and steady economic output growth occurring during both administrations, save for a 2020-21 global blip during the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic (see here for detailed data on how the economy fared under Biden and Trump). The president often has a less direct impact on the U.S. economy than public perception may suggest, considering the difficulty in implementing policies, the global nature of the economy and the fragile nature of the stock market, which ultimately relies on earnings growth for multinational corporations.

How Could Stocks React To Trump Or Harris Winning?

Though presidential impact on stock prices is often negligible in the long run, strategists suggest it’s likely that stocks in sectors like banking and oil production would get a boost from Trump, while companies which rely heavily on manufacturing in Taiwan (like semiconductor chip maker Nvidia), or on sales in China (like Apple), could be hurt due to Trump’s policy in the region.