• With the first overall pick, the New England Patriots select: Oddsmakers and PFF concur that the Patriots currently project as the most likely team to pick first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, with a forecasted win total of just 6.49, per PFF’s season simulation model.

• Three teams stand above the 10-projected-wins mark: The Chiefs, 49ers and Ravens all surpassed an average of double-digit wins in PFF’s simulation model.

• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF’s fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to prepare for your live draft!

Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

Summer is in full swing, and with training camps just around the corner, it’s never too early — or too late — to shop the NFL futures market for the 2024 campaign.

Schedules have been set and the oddsmakers have weighed in. With the help of PFF’s season simulation model, we are diving into the futures landscape to find value in the win totals market.

Win Projections (per PFF’s Simulation Model)

As any solid simulation should, the PFF win total projections add up to exactly 272 games. However, that isn’t traditionally how oddsmakers price out win totals markets.

For example, FanDuel Sportsbook’s win total expectation sits at 271 games with associated pricing of the odds giving leans to the market.

Best Bets

Kansas City Chiefs

After eight straight division titles, the reigning champions and participants in four of the past five Super Bowls have more than proven that, with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes at the helm, they will have a title shot every single year.

While that foundational security breeds success, some cracks are beginning to show. Kansas City endured some offensive woes in 2023, which aren’t outwardly perceptible, given the margin for error provided by having an elite play-caller and signal-caller. It largely masked the Chiefs’ struggles with offensive efficiency, finishing the year with a negative EPA per play margin (-0.006) for the first time in the Mahomes era.

That could signal a deeper issue with the offense, one that’s facing several question marks in regard to depth and holes in the roster, namely at receiver and tackle. The Chiefs addressed their depth at those positions this offseason. But was it enough?

They drafted wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who earned the 75th-best receiving grade (73.4) at the position in the Power Five last season, and signed Marquise Brown, who has failed to surpass a season-long 70.0 receiving grade since 2020, to supplement a receiving corps that may be without breakout receiver Rashee Rice, who is facing a lengthy suspension.

Pair that with a competition at left tackle and questionable production from Jawaan Taylor at the right tackle spot, and that stagnation on offense may reveal itself again.

While the defense is still solid, Kansas City lost a key contributor in the secondary after L’Jarius Sneed signed with Tennessee. It may take time for the secondary to mesh after the fact. And amid an offense that could struggle to find its footing to keep this defense off the field, that strength may be hindered.

A slow start could be in the works for this team, given a tough early schedule featuring a pair of games at home against Baltimore and Cincinnati, setting up a stretch that features a pair of matchups on the road against the new-look Falcons and Chargers. While the Chiefs will surely be favored in each matchup, those games will be hotly contested.

It may seem odd to fade the back-to-back champs, but 11.5 wins is too high for this roster currently, and the PFF simulation model agrees.

Bet: Kansas City Chiefs under 11.5 wins (-104)

Los Angeles Rams

The elephant in the room of the Rams’ offseason centers on Aaron Donald‘s retirement. Instead of wasting your time rehashing the future first-ballot Hall of Famer’s prolific career, check out the PFF record books, which have his name written all over them.

Needless to say, Donald’s departure is a devastating loss for this team, as the eight-time All-Pro accounted for the highest PFF WAR (5.35) by a defender since 2014. Just this past season, Donald accounted for 0.63 WAR, well above the next-best player at the position, Chris Jones (0.41 WAR).

The Rams’ pass rush isn’t left barren after Kobie Turner’s stellar rookie campaign and the drafting of Jared Verse, but first-year defensive coordinator Chris Shula will face replacing a dominating presence on the interior that freed up other guys for one-on-one opportunities and accounted for 28.5% of the team’s generated pressures.

Adjusting to life after Donald will take some time for the Rams, which they don’t have much of amid the sixth-hardest strength of schedule this season. Los Angeles begins the year on the road for three of its first five games, including matchups in Detroit (Week 1) and Chicago (Week 4), while also playing host to a pair of tough opponents in the reigning NFC champion 49ers (Week 3) and the up-and-coming Packers (Week 5).

That’s a treacherous road to travel in the first month of the season, and it will leave the Rams playing catch-up the rest of the year.

Bet: Los Angeles Rams under 8.5 wins (+118)