If their strengths of schedule are any indication, it’s about to be a tough season for teams in the AFC North and a relative breeze for NFC South squads.

The Cleveland Browns are set to have the NFL’s toughest schedule based on 2023 team records, while their divisional counterpart Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers come in second and third, respectively.

By contrast, the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints are tied with the NFL’s easiest schedule. Overall, the NFC South comprises four of the five easiest schedules in football.

2024 NFL Strength of Schedule

3. Pittsburgh Steelers .533

T-4. Green Bay Packers .526

T-6. New York Giants .516

T-8. Jacksonville Jaguars .512

T-8. Las Vegas Raiders .512

T-8. New England Patriots .512

T-12. Dallas Cowboys .505

T-12. Los Angeles Rams .505

T-12. San Francisco 49ers .505

T-16. Cincinnati Bengals .502

T-16. Kansas City Chiefs .502

T-16. Minnesota Vikings .502

T-16. Washington Commanders .502

T-21. Indianapolis Colts .491

T-21. Philadelphia Eagles .491

T-21. Tennessee Titans .491

T-24. Arizona Cardinals .488

T-24. Miami Dolphins .488

T-24. Seattle Seahawks .488

T-24. Los Angeles Chargers .488

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers .478

T-29. Carolina Panthers .467

T-31. Atlanta Falcons .453

T-31. New Orleans Saints .453

Of course, simply taking the previous season’s win-loss record and extrapolating it over isn’t a perfect measure to determine schedule strength.

Those numbers don’t factor in offseason moves, and we’ve seen a ton of major player movement this spring.

The Atlanta Falcons are a 7-10 team on paper but fixed their biggest roster need in signing Kirk Cousins. The Houston Texans loaded up on both sides of the ball around C.J. Stroud and should be better than their 10-7 record from a year ago. The New York Jets view themselves as a Super Bowl contender coming off a 7-10 season with Aaron Rodgers coming back.

By contrast, teams like the Denver Broncos (8-9) and Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) are likely worse than their record from last season.

Football Analytics guru Warren Sharp puts together his own version of strength of schedule that includes his projected win totals based on offseason moves. In Sharp’s analysis, the Falcons come away with the NFL’s easiest schedule and the Steelers the hardest.

It’s not particularly difficult to see why. The Steelers are in a division that features three teams with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. The Falcons, meanwhile, have six games against the NFL’s worst division.

Any fans worried about their team’s schedule strength should also breathe a sigh of relief. Five of the 10 teams with the most “difficult” schedules last season wound up making the playoffs. Only four of the 10 teams with the “easiest” schedule became postseason teams.