NFL Week 6 DFS Breakdown: A game-by-game look at the weekend DFS slate

Posted by author October 13, 2024 Football

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Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes

Welcome to the MagicSportsBreakdown!

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This breakdown can be used for cash games, single-entry, three-max and high-dollar GPPs. For max-entering GPPs, use the recommended players to build your player pool (players are listed in order based on exposure). All pace and pass rates refer to “neutral situations” (+/-8 points) unless otherwise noted.

How do I best use the Sunday A.M. Update?

The “Sunday A.M. Update” offers a game-by-game analysis of the DraftKings main slate, focusing on key injuries, advanced stats, trends and expected pace and playcalling.

I also provide my “optimal lineups” for DraftKings (“DK”). These lineups (“LUs”) consist of 7-of-9 players to comply with DraftKings regulations of not giving out complete teams. One is designed for GPPs, and one is for Cash Games.

In addition to the optimal lineups, I also share my personal “core” player pool (usually 16-20 players) that I’m rolling out in three-max (contests that allow three lineups per user) and other multi-entry GPPs (contests that allow as many as 150 lineups per user).

Click here to jump to a game:

Game breakdowns

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

HOU -7, O/U 38
Implied team totals: HOU (22.5), NE (15.5)

Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends

• Nico Collins is out, while Joe Mixon is set to return for Houston.

• Rhamondre Stevenson is out, and Antonio Gibson will start at running back for New England.

• Drake Maye will make his debut at quarterback for the Patriots.

• Ja’Lynn Polk has played 87% and 100% of offensive snaps over his last two games. Despite securing only 4-of-13 targets, he should benefit from Maye under center. Polk also narrowly missed a touchdown catch last week, with his heel out of bounds.

• With Collins exiting early, Dalton Schultz saw a season-high six targets. New England has allowed 71.6 yards per game to tight ends over its last three games.

• C.J. Stroud, ranked eighth in EPA per pass, posted his second consecutive 300-plus yard passing game despite Collins going down in the first quarter.

• New England ranks 27th in EPA allowed per pass on defense.