Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft, had a disaster of a rookie campaign under short-lived head coach Urban Meyer. By the end of his second season, though, Lawrence had his Jacksonville Jaguars in the playoffs and himself in the Pro Bowl.

At that point, it felt like an early extension was inevitable. However, Lawrence wasn’t extension-eligible until this offseason.

Those extension talks appear to have already begun.

“We’ve had some great talks and great conversations,” general manager Trent Baalke said, via a team transcript (h/t NFL.com’s Christian Gonzales). “… We’re working, but you can’t force this stuff.”

Jacksonville might be wise not to rush anything. Yes, the price of quarterbacks is going up, which is why teams like Dallas and Green Bay should act quickly. At this point, though, the Jaguars can’t be sure that Lawrence is destined to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

Injuries did play a factor in 2023, but Lawrence was far closer to good than great this past season. He posted a passer rating of only 88.5 (after a 95.2 rating in 2022) and an 8-8 record as the starter.

In three years, Lawrence now has one Pro Bowl appearance, one playoff loss and two underwhelming seasons. That 2022 campaign was promising, but Lawrence hasn’t done enough to justify a contract worth upward of $50 million per year, which has become the going rate after Goff’s extension.

With the fifth-year team option at their disposal, the Jags aren’t in danger of losing Lawrence for another two years—three if they consider using the franchise tag on him. Lawrence’s price tag could be significantly higher if he signs then instead of now, but only if he returns to his 2022 form and stays there.

If Lawrence’s Pro Bowl campaign proves to be the aberration, the Jaguars could regret an early extension in a big way.