Finally the Denver Broncos are back at the post season party for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50, nine years ago, writes ANDY RICHMOND.

For Buffalo, it’s almost automatic to qualify for this stage of the season but they will know that their arch nemesis the Chiefs are lurking once again having captured the No1 seed in the AFC and left the Bills as the No2 seed and having to play once again in the Wild Card Round. This is the fourth time in the last five years that the Bills have found themselves in this particular spot and they are hosting a Wild Card game for the fifth consecutive season.

The good news for the Bills is that they have thrived in the Wild Card Round going 4-1 when QB Josh Allen has started as he will be doing on Sunday. More good news for the Bills is that they have won the previous four Wild Card games, scoring 27 points or more in all of those contests. On the other side at quarterback rookie Bo Nix will be making his first start in the playoffs after he replaced Russell Wilson who the Broncos decided to let go at the end of last season. Nix has, so far, outperformed expectations but this will be a tough assignment for the young quarterback. If Buffalo takes the lead in this game, how will Bo Nix respond on the road in his first playoff start? Nix struggled against the heavy zone defences of the Colts and Chargers and the Bills defence is built the same way looking to contain opposing offences and not give away big plays. Over the past 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 outright and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in road playoff games.

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There’s a feeling that the Bills enter this playoff season in better shape than they have for the past two years. Two years ago, the Bills psyche was irreparably altered following safety Damar Hamlin’s near-death experience two weeks before the postseason and last year their offensive identity was in question after they made a mid-season change at offensive coordinator. This year there are no such problems offensively apart from the fact that OC Joe Brady is attracting admiring glances from other teams for a head coaching role.

Lots have been spoken about how good the Denver defence is and judged by DVOA (Defence-adjusted value over average) they are in the top four but there are a sample size of games that would make you question how good the Denver defence is especially in the secondary. Look at the sides and quarterbacks that showed how this Broncos defence can be picked upon and they face an elite QB here in Josh Allen. Justin Herbert of the Chargers had his own way in both divisional games this season, Joe Burrow led the Bengals to 30 points and threw for 412 yards, whilst Lamar Jackson and his Ravens offence scored 41 points against Denver. Perhaps most worrying of all the mistake riddled Browns offence led by Jameis “Interception Prone” Winston put up 32 points and 497 yards against them on Monday Night Football.

Despite those numbers the defence is good enough to give Allen and the rest of the Bills offence problems if they start slowly as they have in several games this season. However, we shouldn’t disregard the Denver offence that has finished the season strongly as QB Bo Nix gathered more experience and the offence managed to score 24 or more points in each of their final seven games, averaging 32.6 points per game in that stretch. Nix capped a stellar rookie season by completing over 70% of his passes in each of the final three games of the year and by throwing multiple passing touchdowns in seven of the final eight games. He finished the season throwing 29 touchdowns with 12 interceptions, adding 430 yards and 4 touchdowns rushing. The emphasis for Nix at least this early in his career has been to get the ball out of his hands quickly resulting in a short area passing game that builds slowly and methodically whilst also allowing Nix to use his rushing ability. This will be a tall task for Nix on the road in Buffalo though as the  Bills have allowed a league-low 5.9 yards per pass attempt at home this season and HC Sean McDermott has been tough on rookie QBs, those first year passers going just 3-10 against a McDermott coached Bills, with one of those wins was in this past week with Buffalo sitting their starters.

So what does Nix have to work with? The Broncos running game has been a mystery all season long or rather who the main man is with that part of the offence. From week-to-week the situation has ebbed and flowed all season long although in the four game stretch that has led into the playoffs the scenario appears to have settled down a little more although there is still scope for it to descend once more into one of the more nebulous NFL backfields. Jaleel McLaughlin looks to have established himself as the primary runner, with Javonte Williams playing on clear passing downs, whilst rookie Audric Estime, who looks the best pure runner amongst the triumvirate of RBs the change of pace option. It really is pot luck as to predicting who will play the biggest part in this stanza of the game for the Broncos.

Through the air Nix and the Broncos offence will be facing a Bills defence which is very much of the bend but don’t break variety playing a zone-coverage style that has held opponents to the NFL’s fifth-fewest 20+ yard completions (43) and Nix will have to be patient even if Denver falls behind. Courtland Sutton has been Nix’s main wide receiver all season long although Sutton is likely to come up against the Bills No1 CB Christian Benford who has the size and coverage skills to give Sutton a very difficult game (Benford has allowed a minuscule 5.4 yards per target this season). Sutton had the best season of his career in 2024, setting career-best marks in targets (135), receptions (81), and yards (1,081) while adding 8 touchdowns alongside being the primary red zone threat accounting for 31.8% of the red zone targets  and 45.9% of the throws into the end zone. However, the Bills have been tough on outside wide receivers all season and Sutton will have to be at his best here to register meaningful numbers.

That scenario may well see Marvin Mims Jr. come even more into the rotation as he continues his strong finish to the season and he certainly is the one player who can provide some spark to this offence as he did last Sunday. On that occasion he caught all five of his targets for 51 yards and although he often receives his targets behind the line of scrimmage with Mims its all about getting the ball in his hands ins pace and letting his pace and shiftiness do the rest. The Bills have been susceptible to this type of player and it may well be that Mims is on this occasion the most dangerous part of the Broncos offence. Behind Mims and Sutton the rest of the receiving corps is very much the same as their backfield with a “committee” of WRs and TEs who can play in various situations.

Looking at the Bills on offence its one that can win in many different ways and one that has never shied away from getting in a shootout as we saw with the games against the Lions and Rams. As we touched on earlier the Broncos score well on various metrics but when they have, for the most part, come up against a top level QB they can prove vulnerable and the Bills have one of those in Josh Allen. Allen has arguably had the best season of his career and is vying with the Ravens QB Lamar Jackson for MVP honours. How the Broncos chose to approach the way they defend against Allen will be one of the keys to the game. Having used the blitz heavily this season they could once again use that tactic but Allen is very adept at avoiding the blitz and has great numbers against it. This season Allen threw 11 touchdowns to just one interception and five sacks when blitzed. The other component that the Broncos must and will want to contain is Allen’s running ability and in games like this he’s likely to use his legs even more even against a stout run defence like the Broncos. Allen has been exceptional in these Wild Card games. Over his past four opening postseason games, Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in all of them with 3 or more passing scores in each of the past three.

The rest of the Bills ground game is likely to come via RB James Cook who comes into this contest on the back of his best season ending up with the following numbers 239 touches for 1,267 yards and 18 touchdowns. His game rather than being built on a workhorse role has its foundation on efficiency and at home this season Cook only cleared 15 touches once and that was back in Week 1. The matchup here isn’t a plus one by any means but it wouldn’t be a surprise here if the Bills used Cook not only as a runner but also in a passing role. The last time that Buffalo faced such a blitz-heavy opponent that leaned into man coverage was Detroit (Denver play a very similar defence) and in that game the Bills threw to running backs 8 times for 156 yards and a TD.

One element of the Bills passing game that may well give the Broncos a problem is within their offensive structure they don’t have, like so many other teams an alpha WR. That means it will be harder for the Broncos to know what to do with their lockdown CB Pat Surtain as Denver always love to have him go one-to-one with the main opposition wide receiver. The Bills for all their “wealth” in the receiving corps don’t really have a player of that ilk although they have a very good cabal of wide receivers and tight ends all of whom can cause the Broncos problems. For the first time this season it looks as though the Bills will have the full arsenal of receivers available although it’s hard to know who will be the biggest threat although Khalil Shakir has a reputation of being the consistent target for Allen and a constant in terms of targets and receptions.

The Bills based on not only their playoff pedigree but also homefield advantage are hefty -9.5 favourites for this contest and with “Super Josh” at QB they are always going to be tough to beat. If the Bills establish an early lead Denver could well be in trouble here that would force them into playing catchup football against a defence who just love to force turnovers and mistakes from opposing QBs. The Broncos will need to stay in the game and could make this close and uncomfortable if they can do that into the second half, as in effect they are playing with house money. Ultimately though, the Bills and Allen should have too much expertise, experience, and playoff smarts to fail here as they head for what may well be another AFC Championship date with their ultimate foe and adversary in Mahomes and the Chiefs.

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