Anyone making Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks will now have to navigate bye weeks. In Week 5, you’ll have four fewer teams to choose from for NFL survivor picks, including Super Bowl contenders like the Lions and Eagles, as well as an easy team to pick on, the 1-3 Titans. Did you use up all of the big dogs early on, or were you strategic with your early NFL knockout pool picks, leaving quality options for your Week 5 NFL eliminator pool picks?

The Ravens looked like a juggernaut while demolishing the Bills last Sunday, but they now have a tough road matchup versus a Bengals team coming off their first win. The Bills are one-point underdogs in the latest NFL odds Week 5 after being one-point favorites earlier this week. The Jaguars (-2.5) are the lone winless team in action, but their opponent, the Colts, could be without starting quarterback Anthony Richardson (oblique, abdominal), who departed last Sunday’s game, and star running back Jonathan Taylor (out, ankle), who could be replaced by Trey Sermon. Before finalizing any Week 5 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 188-131 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 42-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 5 NFL odds and locked in its Week 5 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 5 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Chiefs (-5.5, 43.5) versus New Orleans on Monday Night Football, even though Kansas City is undefeated. The Chiefs won last week versus the Chargers, but they lost leading receiver Rashee Rice to a knee injury, to add to the absences of running back Isiah Pacheco and receiver Marquise Brown. That may be putting too much pressure on Patrick Mahomes‘ right arm, and it’s becoming apparent. Mahomes, who has the second-highest passer rating in NFL history (103), has seen his passer rating drop below 90 in his last three games, making it the first time in five years that’s occurred.

The Chiefs have also seen their points total drop in every game this season, while the Saints (2-2) just suffered a somewhat fluky loss to the Falcons in which New Orleans didn’t allow an offensive touchdown. New Orleans still owns the league’s top scoring offense, and its No. 7 scoring defense makes the Saints just one of two teams to rank in the top eight on both sides of the ball. While the Chiefs are projected to win in over 60% of simulations, the model is saving Kansas City for another week. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 5 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations and has a 6-0 streak on its side. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 5 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 5, all from the advanced computer model that is up well over $7,000 since its inception.