A few years ago, it would’ve been wild to forecast Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold meeting in London, except with the former captaining the New York Jets, and the latter entering their matchup as the superior quarterback for Rodgers’ old rival, the Minnesota Vikings. Yet here we are, about a quarter of the way into the 2024 NFL season, and Darnold is drawing legitimate MVP buzz for the unbeaten Vikings, whereas Rodgers is desperate to find a rhythm for the uneven Jets overseas.

In truth, this cross-conference clash across the pond is about much more than the quarterbacks. Darnold has enjoyed one of the NFL’s deepest supporting casts to start his purple reign. Rodgers, meanwhile, has showcased his trademark arm while struggling to get fully in sync with young weapons like Garrett Wilson, depending more on Robert Saleh’s defense to start 2-2. Going head to head in London, with 11 of the NFL’s last 13 international games decided by one score, is a chance for both sides to make a statement.

How can you tune in? Which players could be X-factors? And who’s actually primed to win? Here’s our preview and prediction for the Sunday morning affair:

Where to watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 6 | Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
• Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)
• TV: NFL Network | Stream: fubo (try for free)  
• Odds: Vikings -3 | O/U 40.5 (SportsLine consensus)

Key matchups

• Vikings WR Justin Jefferson vs. Jets CB Sauce Gardner: We’re probably underrating how seamlessly Jefferson has returned to the lineup with star-powered sizzle after an injury-shortened 2023. He’s been automatic for Darnold. Finally, though, he’ll be up against an elite secondary here, with New York ranking No. 2 in pass defense. If Gardner can somehow manage to quiet Jefferson, it’ll put added pressure on Jordan Addison to break free against the Jets’ corner group.
• Vikings OT Brian O’Neill vs. Jets DE Will McDonald IV: Minnesota’s front has quietly gone from solid to darn near spectacular as of late, and O’Neill’s part of that unit. McDonald, however, has been on a tear as the surprise headliner of Robert Saleh’s pass rush, already hitting career highs in sacks (5) and quarterback hits (8) through four games. He has a chance to put more pressure on Darnold than, well, anyone else this year, and that’s after Vikings wins over clubs like the San Francisco 49ers.
• Jets OT Olu Fashanu vs. Vikings OLB Pat Jones II: Veteran right tackle Morgan Moses has been ruled out due to injury for New York, meaning Rodgers will be relying on the rookie Fashanu to keep him clean after facing steady heat from the Denver Broncos in Week 4. Jones, meanwhile, has quietly emerged as a wrecking ball off the edge for Brian Flores, with five sacks and 12 pressures despite taking roughly 50% of the club’s defensive snaps behind Jonathan Greenard this year.

Burning questions

• Jets: Can Aaron Rodgers’ front hold up? The 40-year-old former MVP has been adept at releasing the ball in a hurry this year, but he all but had to fire instant throws in Week 4 due to shaky protection. That could be dire news with Brian Flores’ defense up next; Minnesota gives up a ton through the air, but also ranks top five in points allowed per game and top 10 in quarterback pressure rate. If Rodgers wants to have any chance of getting the Jets offense on track, he needs to be decently protected.
• Vikings: Can Sam Darnold stay composed? We’ve yet to see the former Jets castoff even remotely fazed by a turnover this year. That’s partly because giveaways have been rare for him in Kevin O’Connell’s comfortable setup. It’s also because he’s been genuinely improved as both a decision-maker and critical-down thrower. The Jets’ pass “D” is the best he’s faced so far this year, however, and if Saleh’s unit can force an early turnover, forcing Minnesota to play from behind, that’s another story.

Prediction

For weeks, it’s been reasonable to call the Vikings’ litany of matchups with higher-profile contenders, such as the 49ers and Houston Texans, “prove-it” games for Minnesota. Now? It’s safe to say the Vikings should be favored in just about every matchup. It’s not just Darnold’s rise. It’s the fact he’s had basically everything — an Aaron Jones-led run game, a sturdy front, a deep receiving corps, a highly versatile defense — on his side. This Jets game could play right into the Vikings’ favor once more, as Flores’ front should be primed to get after an admittedly banged-up Rodgers.

Will the Jets keep it close as a result of their own “D”? Probably. These international games, again, aren’t so different from divisional matchups, where the unique factors — in this case, overseas travel and altered pregame routines — tend to make things especially unpredictable. And yet, the Vikings have shown too much balance across the board to be written off here. It may take an uglier, lower-scoring affair to get to 5-0, but Minnesota has the chops for it, especially with New York already facing questions in the trenches. Pick: Vikings 21, Jets 19