Wall Street Puts Rally on Hold Before Fed Meeting: Markets Wrap

Posted by author December 11, 2024 Tech

(Bloomberg) — A rally that shot the world’s biggest technology stocks to all-time highs hit pause Thursday as Wall Street held off on big bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.

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In afterhours trading, chip supplier Broadcom Inc. gained more than 5% on a better-than-expected profit in the fourth quarter as artificial intelligence demand helped bolster growth. A nearly $330 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%.

During the trading day, the tech gauge tumbled 0.7% while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% as traders weighed higher-than-expected jobless claims against too hot producer price data. The equity benchmarks had made strong gains in the prior session after an in-line US inflation report almost fully baked in bets on a quarter-point interest rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 18 meeting.

Data showed initial jobless claims rose to 242,000 for the week ended Dec. 7, ahead of economists’ estimates for 220,000. November producer price readings released at the same time were mixed, with US wholesale inflation accelerating in November due to a surge in egg prices. Treasuries failed to hold onto an advance after the readouts as investors tried to gauge when the central bank will hit pause on interest-rate cuts.

“With high egg prices appearing to play a key role in the hotter-than-expected headline PPI, traders may be focusing more on the jump in jobless claims,” according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. While there’s been a steady stream of solid labor data, “the Fed is primed to be sensitive to any signs of a softening jobs picture.”

A third-consecutive rate cut from the US central bank is widely expected next week after the European Central Bank met expectations for a quarter-point of interest-rate easing and the Swiss National Bank made a surprising 50 basis-point rate reduction Thursday.

A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar strengthened 0.3%, advancing for the fifth consecutive session as traders gauged the prospect of a Fed pause in early-2025 while US bonds fell for the fourth day in a row. Treasuries have climbed immediately after readouts this week only to see those gains evaporate. The yield on the 10-year rose to 4.33% Thursday.

Stan Shipley at Evercore ISI expects the benchmark note to end 2025 around 4.6%.

“The uncertainty of the US economic outlook has increased even though the recession odds have vanished,” Shipley wrote. “This is because economic policy details are not clear.”

To Ella Hoxha, head of fixed income at Newton Investment Management, a “hawkish cut” from the Fed is possible next week. “In that setup, the risk is still that you price the Fed to be a bit more cautious rather than more dovish.”

Breadth Problems

Despite Thursday’s pause in the stock market’s relentless rally, Fundstrat’s Mark Newton sees more room for equities benchmarks to set new highs into year end.

“It’s a known fact that the PPI doesn’t really affect core PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation,” said the firm’s head of technical strategy.

With only a handful of companies — including Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. — responsible for the bulk of the the S&P 500’s 27% year-to-date run some on Wall Street are growing increasingly concerned more stocks aren’t participating in the rally.

The S&P 500 gauge is now headed for its ninth consecutive day where the number of constituents falling outnumbers those rising. That’s the longest such streak since Bloomberg started collecting the data in 2004.

“Shorter-term breadth gauges have waned sharply, but this doesn’t have to bring about a correction,” Newton wrote to clients. Small-caps, transports and the Dow Jones Industrial Average could push back to new highs, he said.

The Swiss franc was the worst performing currency in the Group of 10 after its larger than expected rate cut. Earlier in the week, Canada lowered its policy rates by a half point, while Australia hinted it’s moving toward easing and China vowed to deliver rate cuts. Japan, meanwhile, signaled it’s in no hurry to hike rates.

In commodities, WTI crude contracts pared losses after the International Energy Agency warned of a supply glut in 2025. Gold tumbled as much as 1.6%, the biggest intraday drop in more than two weeks.

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