After Week 1 of the fantasy football season, it can be easy to follow narratives based on one game or chase numbers. We’ve all been there, right? Especially if we took a loss last week and are looking at that 0-1 start with some concern.
But let’s slow down a little bit here, focus on what we learned and what can also be expected moving forward as it pertains to player usage — both positive and negative — taking into consideration the scheme trends I’m seeing on tape.
We’ll touch on multiple wide receivers who posted breakout games, as well as others who were complete busts on opening weekend. It was a rough weekend for highly drafted tight ends, but there’s one who was undrafted in most leagues who has jumped into the TE1 discussion based on offensive personnel tendencies. And we’ll also look at a running back who could eventually climb into the RB2 mix given his Week 1 volume.
Now that we’ve taken a deep breath, here are some of my favorite topics as we get ready for Week 2.
Williams dropped 24.4 fantasy points on the Rams in Week 1 and saw a team-high nine targets, compared to only six for Amon-Ra St. Brown. But I wouldn’t read too much into target share after one game, as St. Brown will get his looks as the clear No. 1 option in Detroit. We know that.
However, after watching Williams go for 125 receiving yards Sunday night, with three catches of 20 or more yards, there’s no denying his ability to produce breakout games. Williams brings an added playmaking element to the perimeter of the Lions’ pass game, and he is a dynamic mover after the catch with sudden speed. Plus, with the bump in volume as a No. 2 receiver in an offense that will scheme plays for him, you can bet on Williams as a strong flex option. And that’s where he’ll be in my lineup this week, replacing the injured Puka Nacua.
Throughout the summer, I targeted Pickens in our mock drafts at ESPN because of his big-play upside, plus the anticipation of an expanding route tree as the Steelers’ No. 1 target. We saw some examples of that in the Week 1 game against the Falcons, when Pickens caught 6 of 7 targets and finished with 13.7 fantasy points.
Yes, Pickens reminded us that he can win over the top on deep-ball throws, as he caught two passes for 40 or more yards. He has vertical juice. But Pickens also made two third-down receptions to move the sticks, winning on an out route and catching an underneath throw from quarterback Justin Fields.
If Pickens can continue to work multiple levels of the route tree, paired with his ability to stretch defenses down the field, then he can produce consistent flex numbers — with breakout-game potential — in Pittsburgh’s run-heavy system.
When the Commanders drafted quarterback Jayden Daniels, I bumped McLaurin up in my ranks. It made sense, right? McLaurin, a detailed route runner, was now paired with the pro-ready throwing traits of Daniels. So, I get the immediate concern after the Commanders’ Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay, with McLaurin catching only two of four targets for 17 yards (3.7 fantasy points). That’s rough when you have him in your lineup.
However, if you look closer at the tape, this was a game plan from Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury designed around getting the ball out quickly. Screens, three-step concepts, the occasional shot on a fade route. In fact, Daniels’ average time before passing registered at 2.35 seconds, the fastest in the league in Week 1. Plus, there were opportunities for McLaurin to make plays. He separated late on a fade, for example, and Daniels missed deep. If he hits that throw, we aren’t even having this discussion.
Remember, there’s a natural progression for rookie quarterbacks and the offenses that are built for them in the first month of the season. We saw it with Daniels, Caleb Williams and Bo Nix last week. And I am betting that Kingsbury opens it up a little bit more in a very positive Week 2 matchup versus the Giants, which keeps McLaurin in the mix as a deeper-league WR3/flex.
I was asked about Likely all week, and my response stayed the same: He’s in the TE1 conversation with clear upside.
Look, the Ravens put together a game plan in Week 1 versus the Chiefs that allowed them to play with both Likely and Mark Andrews on the field. In fact, the Ravens ran 39 snaps of 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers), the most of any team in the league last week. And Likely secured eight of his nine receptions out of two-TE sets.
The way I see it, this is a top personnel grouping for the Ravens, one that creates opportunities for tight ends. And with Likely’s formation flexibility, plus his catch-and-run skills, he can be started in Week 2 as a lower-tier TE1 versus the Raiders.
The lack of Week 1 production for Harrison was a head-scratcher given his upper-level skill set and the anticipated usage in the Arizona offense. Harrison caught just one of three targets in the loss to the Bills, ending the day with only 4 yards receiving. Four. He had a drop in there, too, but he did uncover on tape. Those weren’t the numbers we expected after watching him at Ohio State.
But let’s also give credit to this Buffalo defense, which will force the Cardinals’ coaching staff to create more offensive answers as we head into Week 2.
The Bills played two-deep coverage on 62.9% of coverage snaps, which puts a tent on the top of the secondary. That took away vertical throws, forcing Kyler Murray to play as a distributor on underneath targets. And I think the Cards will see a similar script from the Rams’ defense in Week 2.
So, can we set up Harrison to attack schemed zone voids on deep curls, in-breakers and more? Routes that break in front of the deep-half safety? Yes. And when Murray does read man coverage or pressure, he could look to Harrison on Sunday.
I moved Harrison down in my ranks this week. But if he’s on my roster, I still feel comfortable playing him in the WR2 spot, as I expect the Cardinals to bring that answer sheet to the stadium Sunday.
Worthy scored 20.8 fantasy points, boosted by two touchdowns, in the Chiefs’ Week 1 win over the Ravens, and he did it on just three total touches. That’s not sustainable in fantasy football, but it does give Worthy some boom/bust value heading into the Week 2 game against the Bengals.
However, I still want him in the lineup because of how he can be schemed by coach Andy Reid.
We saw how Reid set up Worthy on the reverse for a 21-yard score last Thursday, and Worthy will continue to be deployed (at times) on manufactured touches. Plus, with the number of deep overs and crossers in Reid’s offense, Worthy can cash in, using his 4.2 speed to run away from coverage, in addition to the vertical shots from quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He’s a true upside play as a WR3 in one of the league’s best offenses.
In Tennessee’s Week 1 loss to the Bears, Pollard emerged as the lead runner in the Titans’ backfield, out-touching Tyjae Spears 19 to 8. Pollard, who posted 18.4 fantasy points on the day, logged 16 carries for 82 rushing yards and a score, while adding 12 yards receiving by catching 3 of 4 targets. Pollard flashed his second-level speed, as well, with three rushes of 10 or more yards, including his 26-yard touchdown. He pressed the edge, got vertical and hit the accelerator. He was scooting.
One game isn’t always indicative of a backfield rotation, but the Titans are telling us, based on Pollard’s usage, that he is the No. 1 for now. And with Spears also getting work, I actually see this as a positive for Pollard, who is better suited to manage 15-20 touches per game as a dual-threat back.
With a Week 2 matchup versus the Jets defense, I’m going to slot Pollard in as a midtier flex, with Spears pushed down the ranks as deeper-league option.
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