Sejal Sharma is IE’s AI columnist, offering deep dives into the world of artificial intelligence and its transformative impact across industries. Her bi-monthly AI Logs column explores the latest trends, breakthroughs, and ethical dilemmas in AI, delivering expert analysis and fresh insights. To stay informed, subscribe to our AI Logs newsletter for exclusive content.

At Camp David last year, US President Joe Biden was unwinding and watching Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One when he first began to recognize the global threat of artificial intelligence (AI).

The villain in the Tom Cruise-starrer is a sentient AI called “the Entity” that wreaks havoc by sinking a submarine and killing its crew in the opening scene. This portrayal of an AI-gone-rogue shook Biden. It had also been a year since OpenAI launched ChatGPT, and at that time, the tectonic plates of the AI sphere had shifted dramatically.

Shortly after, Biden signed the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of AI, marking a major step toward AI safeguards in a country lacking a comprehensive federal AI governance framework.

The order set out voluntary guidelines instead of strict rules and focused on using AI in healthcare, handling risks, and improving transparency by asking companies to share how they train and test their models. The creation of the AI Safety Institute underscored a commitment to making AI safer and reducing its potential risks to society.

Now, Biden’s order is days from repeal, as President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to rescind it on his first day in office.

“We will repeal Joe Biden’s dangerous Executive Order that hinders AI Innovation, and imposes Radical Leftwing ideas on the development of this technology. In its place, Republicans support AI Development rooted in Free Speech and Human Flourishing,” says a document that outlines policies he supports.

With Trump’s election, technology enthusiasts are left wondering: what would a Trump presidency mean for AI regulation?

History tells us he would favor a more deregulated approach to AI, prioritizing innovation and economic growth over stringent oversight. He would focus on maintaining US dominance in the tech sphere, particularly in competition with China.

AI leadership and a renewed tech rivalry with China

In his previous term, Trump’s administration guided US federal agencies in regulating AI technology. The guidance first and foremost prioritized American leadership in AI. The memo also encouraged non-restrictive oversight to stimulate AI growth, minimize barriers, and maximize AI’s beneficial deployment across sectors.

It’s safe to say that he will pick things up as he left them when he left the White House in 2020. Experts and pundits agree that Trump will likely steer AI regulation towards a more hands-off approach and potentially limit AI-driven content moderation. 

Another important factor to consider is China. As with many Trump policies, he could make AI regulation a point of contention with the Chinese government and send the message that the digital frontier belongs to none other than the stars and stripes.

While previous Presidents had expressed concerns about Chinese tech companies and took smaller actions to address national security risks, it was under Trump that these actions became much more sweeping, with broad executive orders and direct bans targeting entire sectors of Chinese tech. 

For instance, in 2019, the Trump-led government limited Chinese investments in US technology companies, especially in critical technologies like semiconductors and AI, fearing that these could benefit the Chinese government or military. 

While Trump’s policies were often met with controversy, they had lasting effects on the trajectory of the US tech industry during his tenure. The restrictions he imposed were further enhanced and encouraged under the Biden administration.

Another Trump term would likely prioritize keeping the US ahead of China, even through additional sanctions.

The Musk factor

Whichever path Trump ultimately chooses, the biggest winners—or perhaps losers—would likely be the lords of Silicon Valley. His previous presidency, as portrayed in Bob Woodward’s book Fear: Trump in the White House, revealed a leader who tends to dilly-dally and change his mind often.

Trump’s right-hand man, JD Vance, seems to be singing the tune of ‘regulation mustn’t obstruct innovation.’ Donors to the Trump campaign and tech bros Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz of venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, and PayPal founder Peter Thiel are joining him in the chorus.

But it’s not just their public endorsements that align — all of these individuals and their companies have called for less AI regulation in the US at one point or another.

Elon Musk is a notable exception.

Yes, he has cozied up to Trump in the lead-up to elections and donated over $100 million to the President-elect’s campaign. However, what separates him from the herd of naysayers about AI regulation is his outspoken support for AI safety. Musk has repeatedly argued that the technology must be developed carefully to lessen risks to public safety. 

Musk has previously backed California’s SB 1047, an AI safety bill that sets testing requirements for large AI system developers. In August 2024, he posted on X about his long-standing support for AI regulation to protect the public from potential risks.

Given his close ties to Trump, Musk’s influence could significantly shape the direction of AI regulation. With Musk’s persuasive voice in his ear, Trump might be pushed toward a centrist approach.

As AI continues to shape our world, the future of regulation remains uncertain, with leaders like Trump and Musk pulling us in different directions. AI developing without oversight under his administration is a real concern for some.

With careful regulation, we avoid falling behind in innovation and overlooking critical ethical and safety concerns. We don’t want to be caught at a crossroads where more powerful AI develops and we don’t have the laws to safeguard the human population.

The absence of a solid framework could spark a race to the bottom, where safety and ethics are sacrificed in the name of progress. Let’s hope that AGI doesn’t arrive sooner than expected, for some believe that Trump’s presidency might steer us not toward a gleaming utopia but rather into a dystopian AI future.